School of Aviation

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Grappling with complexity : finding the core problems behind aircraft accidents : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Aviation at Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
(Massey University, 2006) Zotov, Dmitri Victorovitch
The purpose of accident investigation is the discovery of causal factors, so that they may be remedied, in order to avert the recurrence of accidents (ICAO, 1994). However, experience has shown that the present intuitive methods of analysis do not always achieve this aim. Investigation failure may come about because of failure to discover causal factors, or to devise effective remedies, or to persuade those in a position to act of the need to do so. Each of these types of failure can be made less likely by the use of formal analytical methods which can show whether information gathering has been incomplete, and point to the sources of additional information that may be needed. A formal analysis can be examined by formal logical tests. Also, the use of formal change mechanisms can not only devise changes likely to be effective, but can present these changes in such a way that the case for them is compelling. Formal methods currently available are concerned with what happened, and why it happened. To produce generic remedies which might avert future accidents of similar type, some formal change mechanism is needed. The Theory of Constraints has become widely adopted in business as a way of replacing undesirable effects with desired outcomes. The Theory of Constraints has not previously been used for safety investigation, and a principal object of this thesis is to see whether it can usefully be employed in this area. It is demonstrated that the use of formal methodology can bring to light factors which were overlooked during an official accident investigation, and can ‘tell the story’ in a more coherent manner than is possible with present methods. The recommendations derived from the formal analysis are shown to be generic in nature, rather than particular to the airline involved and the accident studied, and so could have a wider effect in improving safety.
Potential on-time performance improvements at the Lufthansa Station at Frankfurt Airport : a human factors approach : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Aviation at Massey University, Auckland (Albany), New Zealand
(Massey University, 2006) Speri, Joerg
Departure punctuality has increasingly gained attention over the last few years. This development is due to the realization what important role this issue plays in the economics of the airline industry. Punctuality is not just a sound performance indicator but also allows airlines to differentiate themselves from their competitors. In addition the issue holds a significant potential for cost savings. For this reason many airlines have started special programmes to improve their punctuality performance, and so did Lufthansa. However, despite this increasing attention, outbound punctuality levels have not yet reached satisfactory levels. Therefore, this study aimed at contributing to this process by identifying potential ontime performance improvements at the Lufthansa station at Frankfurt Airport. As an underlying framework, a Human Factors approach was chosen. Central issues in the focus of the study were the individual perceptions and attitudes towards punctuality by the relevant front line staff. In order to examine these issues a survey among the Flight Managers, Assistant Flight Managers, and Section leaders was carried out. The results of this survey were then put into correlation with the delay statistics published. The results of the survey indicate a potential lack of communication among the front line staff as well as between them and higher organizational entities. Moreover, certain distrust towards the delay statistics became evident. Although the staff members seem quite well motivated, they feel a lack of commitment by their superiors. In addition, the survey gathered some interesting ideas for punctuality improvements held by the front line staff members. Besides very concrete topics for discussion, the central outcome of the study was the recommendation to analyze all relevant processes at the Lufthansa station from a Human Factors perspective in order to improve the communicative situation. Moreover, the study suggests introducing appropriate incentive schemes in order to promote better on-time performance. Altogether these should result in a noticeable improvement of the punctuality situation at the Lufthansa station.
Developing proficiency in air transport pilots : the case for the introduction on non-technical skills in basic pilot training programmes : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of PhD Aviation at Massey University, Palmerston North
(Massey University, 2008) De Montalk, Ritchie James
This study examines the differences between the skills and competencies of New Zealand flight school graduates and the types of skills and competencies believed to define a proficient air transport pilot. In New Zealand the training of professional pilots is directed towards meeting the requirements laid down by the New Zealand Civil Aviation Authority for the licensing of professional pilots. However, some evidence suggests that competence for licensing purposes does not necessarily meet the requirements of the airlines and the types of skills that they require as a prerequisite to airline training. Although not clearly defined, this shortfall has been recognised for several decades and traditional thinking is that extra flying experience gained as a general aviation pilot will develop the skills necessary for entry into airline pilot training. The importance that pilots of differing experience levels attach to technical and non-technical skills and their perception of the training effectiveness of those skills and how deficiencies in those skills contributed to aircraft accidents was explored by a four stage study including: i) a review and analysis of flight test results obtained from graduate pilots on a university air transport pilot programme; ii) the analysis of responses to questionnaires supplied to three pilot groups within the New Zealand aviation industry; iii) the analysis of air transport aircraft accidents and their primary and contributing causes; and iv) interviews with qualified airline pilots working for New Zealand airlines. The results indicated that throughout the spectrum of experience and qualifications, from student pilot to airline pilot, the technical skill of aircraft handling was highly valued and the training in this skill was considered by all pilots to be satisfactory. In contrast, while non-technical skill deficiencies were found to be primary or contributing factors in many aircraft accidents, less importance was attached to non-technical skills by all pilot groups. The training effectiveness of these skills was rated as only moderately effective or of minimal effectiveness. The findings are discussed and recommendations are made for the improvement of basic flight training. In addition, a model is proposed for the fast tracking of flight school graduates into the airline training schools. Several areas for future research are also proposed.
Aviation Education and Research Conference proceedings "Contemporary Issues in Aviation Education and Research"
(Massey University, 2009-07) Yaansah, Robert
‘Contemporary issues in aviation education and research’ is the theme for the inaugural Aviation Education and Research Conference to be held in Blenheim on the 29-30 July as part of the New Zealand Aviation Conference week. The conference is being organised by the Massey University School of Aviation in conjunction with the Aviation Industry Association of New Zealand. “This event is intended as a forum for disseminating research and discussing current issues in aviation, with an emphasis on bridging theory and practice,” says Mr Ashok Poduval, General Manager of the Massey University School of Aviation, “It will also present an opportunity for ‘a meeting of the minds’ for academics and practitioners in the aviation industry.” The two day conference has generated a lot of interest within New Zealand as well as in Australia and the wider international academic community, with many attendees and presenters crossing the Tasman to be part of this event. “We are very pleased with the response,” adds Dr Robert Yaansah, Postgraduate Programmes and Research Coordinator of Massey School of Aviation. “A wide range of papers have been received from academics, representing a good cross section of universities within the Australasia region. Additionally, a number of our PhD Aviation students are presenting papers related to their research. This conference should establish that the region has an academic community with a strong focus on aviation education and research, as good as elsewhere in the world.”
Increased risk of multi-crew operations: examining the effect of group polarisation on perceived invulnerability in general aviation pilots
(2010) Lee, Seung Yong; Gilbey, Andrew
According to the theory of group polarisation, perceived invulnerability could be greater in multi-crew operations than for single pilots. The purpose of this study was to measure the level of perceived invulnerability among general aviation pilots in New Zealand and to examine whether the level of perceived invulnerability was influenced by the presence of other pilots. Whilst it is of some concern that the majority of the pilots exhibited perceived invulnerability, no evidence was found to suggest that the level of perceived invulnerability is affected by a group polarisation effect, although further replication of this study is recommended.
New technologies in general aviation
(2010) Pérezgonzález, Jose D.; Gilbey, Andrew; Diaz Vilela, Luis
This research explored the technological needs of GA pilots at international levels. Overall, single pilot operators tend to value costs as the most important feature of any technology, followed by technology that helps with pre-flight tasks as well as during flight. Remote monitoring, post-flight analysis and 3-D displays are technological features of lesser importance.
Airline passengers’ rights to information and the strange case of the right to be informed about destinations
(2010) Pérezgonzález, Jose D.; Gilbey, Andrew
This research explored whether airline passengers wanted more rights to know about the safety and economic conditions of their flights, as well as the right to be reimbursed if they decided not to flight because of perceived risks. Overall, passengers agreed somehow on having more safety rights, but not so regarding financial rights. Surprisingly, they also wanted to have the right to be informed about their destinations (hotels, attractions, etc), something that is foreign to the purpose and duties of air transport.
Under-reporting in aviation : an investigation of factors that affect reporting of safety concerns : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctorate of Philosophy in Aviation at Massey University, Manawatu, New Zealand
(Massey University, 2010) Tani, Kawtar
A substantial body of evidence suggests that reporting safety concerns and wrongdoing could contribute to improving safety if diligently applied within organisations. A number of aviation accidents suggest that the principles of reporting have not been embraced by the aviation industry; for example, there is evidence that aviation incidents are not always reported even when reporting is mandated by law. This thesis seeks to uncover factors influencing individuals’ intentions to report safety concerns in aviation and to whom such reports might be made. A case study of a New Zealand based example of how under-reporting in aviation may have contributed to the cause of a fatal accident was first presented as evidence of the research problem. Subsequently, four empirical studies of participants working or intending to work in the aviation industry were reported. The empirical findings provided consistent evidence of six factors (seriousness of wrongdoing, direct or indirect involvement in wrongdoing, working environment, legal protection of the reporter, motive of the wrongdoer, and relationship to the wrongdoer) that may influence both individuals’ perceptions of safety issues at the workplace, and their intentions to report wrongdoing. Evidence was also found that when participants do act upon being confronted with wrongdoing situations, they may not do so in a manner that is fully consistent with improving aviation safety. The implications of the empirical findings were discussed and a means of communicating information about what to do when confronted with evidence of wrongdoing in the aviation workplace was proposed. In conclusion, there is confusion in the aviation workplace regarding what matters should be reported to the regulatory authorities and to whom reports should be made. Until such confusion is resolved, the notion that all aviation accidents are preventable is somewhat unrealistic.
Reliability analysis of assisted-GPS technologies for post-flight analysis
(2010) Pérezgonzález, Jose D.
This research analysed the reliability of an assisted-GPS mobile phone in tracking several flight parameters during a typical flight. The reliability was assessed against that of a GPS-based remote tracking device of common use in aviation. The results suggest that the reliability of both devices is similar, which may prove advantageous to those pilots with lesser resources or less interested on a dedicated tracking device.
A pilot test of the effect of mild-hypoxia on unrealistically optimistic risk judgements
(2010) Gilbey, Andrew; Mundel, Toby; Legg, Stephen; Hill, Stephen; Schlader, Zac; Ramon, Aaron
Although hypoxia is believed to occur above altitudes of 10,000 ft, some have suggested that effects may occur at lower altitudes. This pilot study explored risk judgments under conditions of mild hypoxia (simulated altitude of 8,000 ft). Some evidence of an increased optimism was found at this level, suggesting the need for a larger scale study with more experimental power.
Teaching an aviation course via video conference – comments and observations on the attainment of graduate attributes and learning outcomes
(2010) Lewis, Raymond
While the author was at the United States Air Force Academy, Colorado Springs; Colorado, the author taught an Introduction to Aviation course at the School of Engineering and Information Technology located at the University of New South Wales at the Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra. This paper describes the method of teaching this course via video conference. In this instance, teaching via video conference is markedly different to the techniques employed in distance education. This paper will describe the experience of teaching via video conference as well as some of the perceived shortcomings and pitfalls of being a ‘talking head’. The paper also describes some of the techniques developed in order to ameliorate some of the perceived difficulties of teaching via video conference. The results of a student questionnaire and overall learning outcomes will be discussed with reference to University of New South Wales graduate attributes.
Threat and error management : an analysis of reported safety occurences to the Civil Aviation Authority of New Zealand 1998-2007 : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Aviation at Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
(Massey University, 2010) Graham, Timothy
Current safety reports indicate a rise in the number of reported incidents involving both medium and small aeroplanes and helicopters. The purpose of this study is to identify specific threats, errors and Undesirable Aircraft States (UAS), present in safety-related occurrences reported to the Civil Aviation Authority of New Zealand (CAANZ). Threat and Error Management (TEM) is used to improve safety margins in aviation operations through the practical integration of human factors knowledge. The TEM framework is used to guide the investigation of reported safety-related occurrences in a way that systematically identifies specific threats, errors and UAS. This research employs the predictive safety method by investigating reported historical events, followed by analysing each event to list threats, errors and UAS. If a threat, error or UAS is identified in an occurrence, it is then marked ‘present’ under the corresponding column of the TEM taxonomic. After the completion of the classifications, solutions can be developed to prevent similar occurrences in the future. To test for accuracy and consistency of threat, error and UAS classifications, ten randomly chosen occurrences were provided to ten aviation professionals. These tests included Cohen’s Kappa test and a percentage of agreement test. Cohen’s Kappa results reached significant agreement with half of the respondents and an overall percentage of agreement of 68 per cent compared with the researcher’s classifications. Results from the TEM classifications show the majority of threats had environmental influences and procedural errors. The most common UAS resulted mainly from Ground Navigation and Aircraft Handling operational conditions. The TEM technique enabled a focus on the events that contributed to an incident rather than an accident. By applying the results from this TEM taxonomic, it is hoped that pilots will benefit from a better understanding of the importance of TEM and how frequently threat and errors contribute to incidents. This research would then help flight operators and pilots better prepare themselves to react to the likelihood of specific threats or errors, if and when they occur.
The effect of propaganda about climate change on people’s desire to fly
(2010) Gilbey, Andrew; Pérezgonzález, Jose; Tani, Kawtar
The theory of Psychological Reactance suggests that in response to regulations or impositions that impinge upon real or perceived freedoms and autonomy, people may find the restricted behaviour or product appeared more desirable. This reaction is especially common when individuals feel obliged to adopt a particular opinion or engage in a specific behaviour (Brehm & Brehm, 1981). Many sources suggest that aviation has a significant effect on global warming (e.g., Greenpeace). This pilot study explored whether, via the phenomenon of Psychological Reactance, people’s desire for air travel increases following exposure to propaganda about climate change and global warming.
Pilots’ cognition of airport movement area guidance signs
(2010) Lewis, Raymond
Movement Area Guidance Signs (MAGS) are designed to assist pilots when they manoeuvre or taxi an aircraft on the airport prior to take-off and after landing. MAGS are standardized by ICAO and are installed on most major airports. Nevertheless, accident and incident surveys indicate the continuing prevalence of runway incursions and incorrect taxi procedures. The current study extends the findings of work carried out by the University of Newcastle into pilot perception and comprehension of airport movement signs. 18 pilot candidates with a mean age of 20 years and a mean flying experience of 25 hours were tested on their interpretation of MAGS during three simulated taxi manoeuvres. The experimental paradigm was more realistic than the University of Newcastle study in that the simulated taxi manoeuvre was performed with reference to a specific aerodrome chart. Subjects were instructed to taxi from a nominated position at Canberra airport to another nominated position at Canberra airport and were tested on their understanding of MAGS encountered en route. Participants displayed an excellent knowledge of the meaning of the MAGS. The mean score was 56.5 out of a possible 60 points or 94.25%. These results contradict the Newcastle study and indicate that MAGS are effective as a navigation aid for ground-based aircraft operations. Further work is indicated where pilots are tested on their cognition of MAGS when they simultaneously taxi an aircraft whilst performing other tasks associated with ground manoeuvres (for example, reading a pre take-off checklist).
Net profitability of airline alliances, an empirical study
(2010) Pérezgonzález, Jose D.; Lin, Bo
This study examines the net return for airlines before and after joining an alliance. The research database was compiled from ICAOData, and comprised 15 international airlines as subjects and their net financial results for a period of 11 years as primary research variables. Two variables, the averages of five and three years net performance before joining an alliance, were tested against another variable, the average net performance five years after joining the alliance. Results show a deterioration of net profits after joining an alliance, although this trend was only significant when comparing performance over the short-term. However, the performance of American airlines accounted for most of this trend, which may have being partly affected by the consequences of September 11 2001.
2nd Aviation Education and Research Symposium: “Contemporary Issues in Aviation Education and Research”
(Massey University, 2010-07) Pérezgonzález, Jose D.
Massey University School of Aviation is pleased to announce the second Aviation Education and Research Symposium to be held at Palmerston North on 28-29 July 2010, in conjunction with the Aviation Industry Association of New Zealand and Royal Aeronautical Society, New Zealand. This event is intended as a forum for disseminating research and discussing current issues in aviation, with an emphasis on bridging theory and practice. It will present an opportunity for "a meeting of the minds" for academics and practitioners in the aviation industry. The theme for this symposium "Contemporary Issues in Aviation Education and Research" is broad to encourage a greater spectrum of submissions encompassing aviation psychology, education, technology, training, and the economic aspects of the industry. We are delighted at the interest generated and the range of papers received from Australia and New Zealand. The conference papers have been classified into five sessions, with ‘Aviation Psychology’ and ‘Aviation Education’ on the first day, followed by ‘Commercial Aspects of Aviation’, ‘Aviation Technology’ and ‘Training for new technology - the man-machine interface’ on the second day. We welcome delegates to attend, participate and share information on the latest developments in the industry.
Two pilots may be safer than one: The effect of group discussion on perceived invulnerability
(2011) Gilbey, Andrew; Lee, Seung Yong
Although most general aviation (GA) pilots have received training in aviation decision making, one of the most common causes of GA accidents remains a pilot’s decision to press-on with a flight, when the safe decision was to turn back or divert (Federal Aviation Authority, 2002). Presumably, pilots press-on because they assume it is safe to do so, rather than because they are foolhardy. One reason pilots press-on may be because they underestimate the inherent risks. Indeed, research into the area of perceived invulnerability (PI) suggests that many pilots perceive themselves to be invulnerable to negative outcomes and that this predicts the kinds of behaviour likely to increase the chance of accident or incident (Isenberg, 1986). For more than 40 years, psychologists have been aware that decisions made by groups of people tend to polarise the views of individuals (O’Hare & Smitheram, 1995). Thus, if individuals make decisions that are risky, the decisions made in groups will tend to be more risky than those made by individuals. In aviation, this has potentially serious implications for flights where there are two pilots rather than one, because if individual pilots’ are susceptible to PI, then when there are two pilots PI may increase. Data collected earlier (Lee & Gilbey, 2010), which in a preliminary analysis found no effect of group polarisation on PI, was reanalysed to investigate whether an effect of group polarisation would be observed when both members of a pair of pilots exhibit PI. (Previously, all pilots had been included, regardless of whether they exhibited PI.) The sample were seventy-eight GA pilots, recruited from seven different flight training organisations in the North Island of New Zealand (14 female, 64 male; ages 18 to 59 years (M = 25.94, SD = 7.86) flight experience ranged from 30 minutes to 5,000 hours (Mean = 662.38 hours, SD = 895.13 hours). A within-subjects design was used, in which participants completed two equivalent measures of PI; once alone, and once in pairs, following discussion. Significant evidence of PI was found for all pilots when measured alone, t(77) = 8.54, p < 0.001 and also when measured in pairs, following discussion, t(77) = 8.92, p < 0.001. Next, unlike in our previous analysis (Lee & Gilbey, 2010), the nine pairs of participants in which one pilot did not demonstrate PI were excluded from all further analyses. (In hindsight, it was considered illogical to expect PI to be polarised following group discussion if it was not evident in individuals at the outset.) Remaining participants were allocated into two groups based upon a median split of their PI scores when measured alone (>5.8 = high PI and ≤5.8 = low PI). A 2x2 ANOVA indicated a main effect of group polarisation on PI, F(1, 58) = 5.24, p = .026 (Malone = 6.24, SD = 1.03; Mgroup = 6.01, SD = .96) and an interaction between manipulation (alone vs. group) and PI score in the control condition (low vs. high) F(1, 58) = 7.42, p = .009. Contrary to predictions, pilots with the higher levels of PI when alone showed a reduction in PI when measured in groups.The implications of the current study, suggest that perceived invulnerability in GA may be less of a problem when two (or more) pilots fly together, than when they fly alone. Future research could thus investigate accident reports to investigate whether lone pilots are more likely than two pilots to be involved in accidents or incidents where PI was a contributing factor. The findings of this study are reassuring regarding commercial flight operations, where normally there will be two pilots.
Predicting Skytrax’s Official World Airline Star ratings from customer reviews
(2011) Pérezgonzález, Jose D.; Gilbey, Andrew
Skytrax audits and ranks airlines internationally in its yearly ‘Official World Airline Star Ranking’. Unfortunately, its activity is severely restricted, at most covering just 30% of those airlines listed as open for review by passengers in its website in 2010. This research article explored the possibility of using a readily available variable as predictor, as an alternative way of ranking the remaining 70% of airlines in a simpler and more straightforward manner. The regression formula retained correlated highly with the criterion variable, accounting for 47% of its variance, thus supporting the viability of using customer reviews as a possible way of predicting ranking scores for airlines not officially audited by Skytrax.
The application of the New Zealand Civil Aviation Rule Part 115 for the regulation of adventure aviation activities : dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment for the degree of Master of Aviation Management, Department of Aviation, Massey University
(Massey University, 2011) Marriott, David
Research was undertaken to examine the implementation requirements of a proposed rule, NZCAR Part 115,which has been developed with the intention to regulate “adventure aviation” activities in New Zealand. The regulation applies to a wide range of tourism focused airborne operations including the use of ex-military and aerobatic aircraft for joyriding, passenger flights in balloons, gliders, tandem parachuting and hang-gliding operations. The rule was considered necessary as there has been a lack of any recognized safety standards applicable to these activities when they are conducted beyond a purely recreational purpose. An increasing number of operators commercialise their activities by focusing on taking passengers for rides as opposed to conducting training or “trial flights” (which are assumed to be for the purpose of introducing people to the sport). Many of these operations use non-certified aircraft which have not been intended for the carriage passengers on a commercial scale. Where paying passengers are carried, safety is assumed to require a greater level of management. The regulator – the New Zealand Civil Aviation Authority - considers that a formal system that applies standards similar to those of small airline would be more appropriate. A new rule was required due to the novel and diverse nature of activities, and the various types of aircraft used. Specialist legislation for adventure aviation would also open up the sector for further commercial opportunities and would provide the ability to regulate such activities within the civil aviation system. The thesis includes a review of literature which examines the basis of the legislatory requirements and defines the rationale for the rule-making standard, as well as introducing notions for defining and assessing risk within aviation. The review also looks at published industry reaction to the development of the Rule. A part of the research, the survey of operators, elicits their opinion as to the workability of the new legislation. The survey also tests the current level of each operator’s compliance according to a 72 point checklist of operational items and ascertains what modifications to the systems and practices are required in order to comply. The research outcomes identified two groups of operators - one of which has standards and systems that are close to compliance with the new legislation and the other for which compliance would be difficult due to deficient systems and practices. Analysis of the differences highlighted a cultural separation of the groups in terms of their connection with mainstream general aviation and their understanding of the risk management concepts and practices required for commercial operations. The discussion of the results of the research highlights problems with the application of the proposed regulation, particularly to the non-compliant group. Issues include the recreational origins of the sector, a lack of acceptance of the Rule by operators, and on-going problems with the consultation and collaboration in the rule-development process. Workable compliance strategies and processes are discussed, including developing an ecological approach to managing safety as part of best practice. Recommendations look at possible strategies for implementation including the requirement for more pro-active education and enculturation processes, and the formation of a national representative body
PC-based aviation training devices (PCATDs): research, development and certification
(Massey University, 2011) Reweti, Savern; Gilbey, Andrew; Jeffreys, L; Hall, S
This paper examines the development of two PCATD’s (one helicopter, one fixed-wing) and their eventual certification by CAA. Certification has demonstrated the potential these devices have for aviation training in New Zealand. Traditionally FTD‘s and PCATD’s have been sourced from foreign companies, and they represent a considerable financial investment for large flying training organisations. The procurement of these simulator types is generally beyond the financial resources of most small to medium sized flying schools. Aviation training in NZ is facing significant financial constraints as well as an increasing demand to simulate complex glass cockpit systems that are now installed in most new General Aviation (GA) aircraft. The development, utilisation and certification of this type of PCATD technology could solve these difficult challenges.

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