Browsing by Author "Fairclough R"

Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    A new volcanic multi-hazard impact model for water supply systems: Application at Taranaki Mounga, Aotearoa New Zealand
    (Elsevier B.V., 2024-12-24) Porter H; Wilson TM; Weir A; Stewart C; Craig HM; Wild AJ; Paulik R; Fairclough R; Buzzella M
    Water supply systems provide an essential service for society and are highly vulnerable to damage and disruption during volcanic eruptions. Impacts sustained by water supply systems during volcanic eruptions have resulted in prolonged and repeated supply outages. Previous approaches to assessing volcanic impacts to water supply systems have been relatively simplistic, based on hazard intensity thresholds, and only considering direct damage. There is a need for water supply risk assessment approaches informed by vulnerability models that consider the pivotal role of system design and indirect impacts; such as supply and demand fluctuations, personnel shortages, and disruptions to interdependent infrastructure networks. We present a whole-of-system volcanic vulnerability model and impact assessment framework for water supply systems that can be used to estimate system-wide impacts during future volcanic eruptions. This model is developed in collaboration with volcanic risk researchers and water supply engineers in Aotearoa New Zealand and applied to a case study in the Taranaki region for a long-duration and multi-hazard eruption scenario from the active stratovolcano Taranaki Mounga. The model provides an assessment of the functionality of water supply systems affected directly and indirectly by the scenario eruption, interdependent critical infrastructure services, and associated emergency management actions (e.g., evacuations). This scenario, and its modelled impacts, allows practitioners to explore potential mitigation and emergency response options. This framework can be applied in other volcanic contexts to assess impacts on water supplies from future eruptions, highlight key systemic vulnerabilities, and provide a basis for the prioritisation and implementation of risk management strategies.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Approaching the challenge of multi-phase, multi-hazard volcanic impact assessment through the lens of systemic risk: application to Taranaki Mounga
    (Springer Nature, 2024-08-01) Weir AM; Wilson TM; Bebbington MS; Beaven S; Gordon T; Campbell-Smart C; Mead S; Williams JH; Fairclough R
    Effective volcanic impact and risk assessment underpins effective volcanic disaster risk management. Yet contemporary volcanic risk assessments face a number of challenges, including delineating hazard and impact sequences, and identifying and quantifying systemic risks. A more holistic approach to impact assessment is required, which incorporates the complex, multi-hazard nature of volcanic eruptions and the dynamic nature of vulnerability before, during and after a volcanic event. Addressing this need requires a multidisciplinary, integrated approach, involving scientists and stakeholders to co-develop decision-support tools that are scientifically credible and operationally relevant to provide a foundation for robust, evidence-based risk reduction decisions. This study presents a dynamic, longitudinal impact assessment framework for multi-phase, multi-hazard volcanic events and applies the framework to interdependent critical infrastructure networks in the Taranaki region of Aotearoa New Zealand, where Taranaki Mounga volcano has a high likelihood of producing a multi-phase explosive eruption within the next 50 years. In the framework, multi-phase scenarios temporally alternate multi-hazard footprints with risk reduction opportunities. Thus, direct and cascading impacts and any risk management actions carry through to the next phase of activity. The framework forms a testbed for more targeted mitigation and response planning and allows the investigation of optimal intervention timing for mitigation strategies during an evolving eruption. Using ‘risk management’ scenarios, we find the timing of mitigation intervention to be crucial in reducing disaster losses associated with volcanic activity. This is particularly apparent in indirect, systemic losses that cascade from direct damage to infrastructure assets. This novel, dynamic impact assessment approach addresses the increasing end-user need for impact-based decision-support tools that inform robust response and resilience planning.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Quantifying systemic vulnerability of interdependent critical infrastructure networks: A case study for volcanic hazards
    (Elsevier Ltd., 2024-11-23) Weir AM; Wilson TM; Bebbington MS; Campbell-Smart C; Williams JH; Fairclough R
    Infrastructure networks are vital for the communities and industries that rely on their continued operation. Disasters stress these complex networks and can provoke systemic disruptions that extend far beyond the spatial footprint of hazards. An enduring challenge for assessing infrastructure networks within disaster impact assessment frameworks has been to adequately quantify the high spatial interdependence of these networks, and to consider risk management interventions through time. This is of particular importance for volcanic eruptions, which can produce multiple hazards over highly variable spatiotemporal extents. In this study, we present a methodology for the quantification of systemic vulnerability of infrastructure networks, which can be coupled with physical vulnerability models for the purpose of impact assessment. The two-part methodology first quantifies the haard-agnostic criticality of infrastructural components, inclusive of interdependencies, and then incorporates representative hazard spatial footprints to derive the systemic vulnerability. We demonstrate this methodology using the case study of volcanic eruptions from Taranaki Mounga volcano, Aotearoa New Zealand, where there are many industrial sites of national importance, and a high likelihood of a complex multi-hazard volcanic eruption. We find a considerable increase in the systemic vulnerability of electricity and natural gas network components after incorporating infrastructure interdependencies, and a further increase in the systemic vulnerability of these critical components when cross-referenced with potential volcanic hazard spatial extent. The methodology of this study can be applied to other areas of interest in both its hazard-agnostic or hazard-dependent form, and the systemic vulnerability quantification should be incorporated into impact assessment frameworks.