A new volcanic multi-hazard impact model for water supply systems: Application at Taranaki Mounga, Aotearoa New Zealand
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Date
2024-12-24
Open Access Location
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Elsevier B.V.
Rights
(c) 2024 The Author/s
CC BY 4.0
CC BY 4.0
Abstract
Water supply systems provide an essential service for society and are highly vulnerable to damage and disruption during volcanic eruptions. Impacts sustained by water supply systems during volcanic eruptions have resulted in prolonged and repeated supply outages. Previous approaches to assessing volcanic impacts to water supply systems have been relatively simplistic, based on hazard intensity thresholds, and only considering direct damage. There is a need for water supply risk assessment approaches informed by vulnerability models that consider the pivotal role of system design and indirect impacts; such as supply and demand fluctuations, personnel shortages, and disruptions to interdependent infrastructure networks. We present a whole-of-system volcanic vulnerability model and impact assessment framework for water supply systems that can be used to estimate system-wide impacts during future volcanic eruptions. This model is developed in collaboration with volcanic risk researchers and water supply engineers in Aotearoa New Zealand and applied to a case study in the Taranaki region for a long-duration and multi-hazard eruption scenario from the active stratovolcano Taranaki Mounga. The model provides an assessment of the functionality of water supply systems affected directly and indirectly by the scenario eruption, interdependent critical infrastructure services, and associated emergency management actions (e.g., evacuations). This scenario, and its modelled impacts, allows practitioners to explore potential mitigation and emergency response options. This framework can be applied in other volcanic contexts to assess impacts on water supplies from future eruptions, highlight key systemic vulnerabilities, and provide a basis for the prioritisation and implementation of risk management strategies.
Description
Keywords
Water supply, Critical infrastructure, Lifeline utilities, Resilience, Volcanic risk, Volcanic ashfall, Lahars, Disaster risk reduction, Taranaki mounga, Aotearoa New Zealand
Citation
Porter H, Wilson TM, Weir A, Stewart C, Craig HM, Wild AJ, Paulik R, Fairclough R, Buzzella M. (2025). A new volcanic multi-hazard impact model for water supply systems: Application at Taranaki Mounga, Aotearoa New Zealand. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 116.