Phenological phase affects carrot seed production sensitivity to climate change - A panel data analysis

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dc.citation.volume892
dc.contributor.authorGodwin A
dc.contributor.authorMcGill C
dc.contributor.authorWard A
dc.contributor.authorSofkova-Bobcheva S
dc.contributor.authorPieralli S
dc.contributor.editorPaoletti E
dc.coverage.spatialNetherlands
dc.date.accessioned2024-10-30T22:16:13Z
dc.date.available2024-10-30T22:16:13Z
dc.date.issued2023-09-20
dc.description.abstractNew Zealand is a major producer of carrot seeds globally. Carrots are an important nutritional crop for human consumption. Since the growth and development of carrot seed crops mainly depend on climatic factors, seed yield is extremely susceptible to climate change. This modeling study was undertaken using a panel data approach to determine the impact of the atmospheric conditions (proxied by maximum and minimum temperature) and precipitation during the critical growth stages for seed production in carrot, viz., juvenile phase, vernalization phase, floral development phase, and flowering and seed development phase on carrot seed yield. The panel dataset was created using cross-sections from 28 locations within the Canterbury and Hawke's Bay regions of New Zealand that cultivate carrot seed crops and time series from 2005 to 2022. Pre-diagnostic tests were performed to test the model assumptions, and a fixed effect model was selected subsequently. There was significant (p < 0.01) variability in temperature and rainfall throughout different growing phases, except for precipitation at the vernalization phase. The highest rate of changes in maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation were recorded during the vernalization phase (+0.254 °C per year), floral development phase (+0.18 °C per year), and juvenile phase (-6.508 mm per year), respectively. Based on marginal effect analysis, the highest significant influence of minimum (187.724 kg/ha of seed yield decrease for each 1 °C increment) and maximum temperature (1 °C rise increases seed yield by 132.728 kg/ha), and precipitation (1 mm increment of rainfall decreases the seed yield by 1.745 kg/ha) on carrot seed yield were reported at vernalization, and flowering and seed development, respectively. The minimum and maximum temperatures have a higher marginal effect on carrot seed production. Analysis of the panel data demonstrates that the production of carrot seeds will be vulnerable to climatic change.
dc.description.confidentialfalse
dc.format.pagination164502-
dc.identifier.author-urlhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37268143
dc.identifier.citationGodwin A, McGill C, Ward A, Sofkova-Bobcheva S, Pieralli S. (2023). Phenological phase affects carrot seed production sensitivity to climate change - A panel data analysis.. Sci Total Environ. 892. (pp. 164502-).
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164502
dc.identifier.eissn1879-1026
dc.identifier.elements-typejournal-article
dc.identifier.issn0048-9697
dc.identifier.number164502
dc.identifier.piiS0048-9697(23)03123-6
dc.identifier.urihttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/71878
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherElsevier BV
dc.publisher.urihttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969723031236
dc.relation.isPartOfSci Total Environ
dc.rights(c) 2023 The Author/s
dc.rightsCC BY 4.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectCarrot seed crop
dc.subjectMarginal effect
dc.subjectNew Zealand
dc.subjectPhenology
dc.subjectRegression
dc.subjectSeed yield
dc.subjectHumans
dc.subjectDaucus carota
dc.subjectClimate Change
dc.subjectSeeds
dc.subjectTemperature
dc.subjectCrops, Agricultural
dc.titlePhenological phase affects carrot seed production sensitivity to climate change - A panel data analysis
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.elements-id461959
pubs.organisational-groupOther
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