Long-term communication of aftershock forecasts: The Canterbury earthquake sequence in New Zealand

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dc.citation.volume114
dc.contributor.authorWein AM
dc.contributor.authorMcBride SK
dc.contributor.authorBecker JS
dc.contributor.authorChristophersen A
dc.contributor.authorDoyle EEH
dc.contributor.authorGerstenberger MC
dc.contributor.authorPotter SH
dc.date.accessioned2024-11-25T00:01:08Z
dc.date.available2024-11-25T00:01:08Z
dc.date.issued2024-10-21
dc.description.abstractOn 14 February 2016, a magnitude (M)5.7 earthquake struck in Christchurch New Zealand (Aotearoa in the Maori language). The shaking caused damage to historic facades, power outages, cliff collapses, rock falls, and liquefaction but no reported injuries or fatalities. This Valentine's Day earthquake was an aftershock in the Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES), which began on 4 September 2010 with the M7.1 Darfield Earthquake and included the destructive and fatal M6.2 Christchurch aftershock on 22 February 2011. This study, eight months after the Valentine's Day earthquake and six years after the initiation of the CES, is the first to explore long-term aftershock forecast information and communication needs. The exploratory study also aimed to gather feedback on aftershock scenarios, an alternative form for communicating the forecast. The qualitative study involved workshops with emergency managers, public health officials, and members of the public in Christchurch. Key findings for long-term communication throughout an earthquake sequence include: 1. divergent earthquake experiences affect aftershock communication response and information needs; 2. understanding aftershock sequence behavior is foundational to sense-making when large aftershocks occur; 3. strategic earthquake sequence updates from the trusted science agency and local agencies could serve as important reminders for earthquake preparedness; 4. communication of aftershock forecast uncertainty could aid with both the credibility of the information and living with uncertainty, and 5. inclusion of impact information and preparedness advice into aftershock forecast scenarios could provide links to actionable information. The paper derives implications for research and practice of long-term communications during an aftershock sequence.
dc.description.confidentialfalse
dc.edition.editionNovember 2024
dc.identifier.citationWein AM, McBride SK, Becker JS, Christophersen A, Doyle EEH, Gerstenberger MC, Potter SH. (2024). Long-term communication of aftershock forecasts: The Canterbury earthquake sequence in New Zealand. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 114.
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104878
dc.identifier.eissn2212-4209
dc.identifier.elements-typejournal-article
dc.identifier.issn2212-4209
dc.identifier.number104878
dc.identifier.urihttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/72069
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherElsevier Ltd.
dc.publisher.urihttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221242092400640X
dc.relation.isPartOfInternational Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
dc.rightsCC BY 4.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectEarthquake sequence
dc.subjectAftershock forecast
dc.subjectLong-term communication
dc.subjectAftershock scenarios
dc.subjectImpact forecast
dc.titleLong-term communication of aftershock forecasts: The Canterbury earthquake sequence in New Zealand
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.elements-id492084
pubs.organisational-groupOther
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