Indirect interaction between an endemic and an invading pathogen: A case study of Plasmodium and Usutu virus dynamics in a shared bird host population.

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dc.citation.volume157
dc.contributor.authorDimas Martins A
dc.contributor.authorRoberts M
dc.contributor.authorTen Bosch Q
dc.contributor.authorHeesterbeek H
dc.coverage.spatialUnited States
dc.date.accessioned2024-08-05T01:19:21Z
dc.date.available2024-08-05T01:19:21Z
dc.date.issued2024-04-18
dc.description.abstractInfectious disease agents can influence each other's dynamics in shared host populations. We consider such influence for two mosquito-borne infections where one pathogen is endemic at the time that a second pathogen invades. We regard a setting where the vector has a bias towards biting host individuals infected with the endemic pathogen and where there is a cost to co-infected hosts. As a motivating case study, we regard Plasmodium spp., that cause avian malaria, as the endemic pathogen, and Usutu virus (USUV) as the invading pathogen. Hosts with malaria attract more mosquitoes compared to susceptible hosts, a phenomenon named vector bias. The possible trade-off between the vector-bias effect and the co-infection mortality is studied using a compartmental epidemic model. We focus first on the basic reproduction number R0 for Usutu virus invading into a malaria-endemic population, and then explore the long-term dynamics of both pathogens once Usutu virus has become established. We find that the vector bias facilitates the introduction of malaria into a susceptible population, as well as the introduction of Usutu in a malaria-endemic population. In the long term, however, both a vector bias and co-infection mortality lead to a decrease in the number of individuals infected with either pathogen, suggesting that avian malaria is unlikely to be a promoter of Usutu invasion. This proposed approach is general and allows for new insights into other negative associations between endemic and invading vector-borne pathogens.
dc.description.confidentialfalse
dc.edition.editionJune 2024
dc.format.pagination118-128
dc.identifier.author-urlhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38626854
dc.identifier.citationDimas Martins A, Roberts M, Ten Bosch Q, Heesterbeek H. (2024). Indirect interaction between an endemic and an invading pathogen: A case study of Plasmodium and Usutu virus dynamics in a shared bird host population.. Theor Popul Biol. 157. (pp. 118-128).
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.tpb.2024.04.002
dc.identifier.eissn1096-0325
dc.identifier.elements-typejournal-article
dc.identifier.issn0040-5809
dc.identifier.piiS0040-5809(24)00035-2
dc.identifier.urihttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/71192
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherElsevier B.V.
dc.publisher.urihttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040580924000352
dc.relation.isPartOfTheor Popul Biol
dc.rights(c) 2024 The Author/s
dc.rightsCC BY 4.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectAvian malaria
dc.subjectCo-infection
dc.subjectParasite manipulation
dc.subjectSpecies interactions
dc.subjectUsutu virus
dc.subjectAnimals
dc.subjectBirds
dc.subjectPlasmodium
dc.subjectFlavivirus
dc.subjectCoinfection
dc.subjectMalaria, Avian
dc.subjectEndemic Diseases
dc.subjectFlavivirus Infections
dc.subjectMosquito Vectors
dc.subjectMalaria
dc.titleIndirect interaction between an endemic and an invading pathogen: A case study of Plasmodium and Usutu virus dynamics in a shared bird host population.
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.elements-id488349
pubs.organisational-groupCollege of Health
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