Forecasting Eruptions at Poorly Known Volcanoes Using Analogs and Multivariate Renewal Processes

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dc.citation.issue12
dc.citation.volume49
dc.contributor.authorWang T
dc.contributor.authorBebbington M
dc.contributor.authorCronin S
dc.contributor.authorCarman J
dc.date.accessioned2023-11-07T22:55:30Z
dc.date.accessioned2023-11-20T01:38:12Z
dc.date.available2022-06-06
dc.date.available2023-11-07T22:55:30Z
dc.date.available2023-11-20T01:38:12Z
dc.date.issued2022-06-28
dc.description.abstractForecasting future destructive eruptions from re-awakening volcanoes remains a challenge, mainly due to a lack of previous event data. This sparks a search for similar volcanoes to provide additional information, especially those with better compiled and understood event records. However, we show that some of the most obviously geologically comparable volcanoes have differing statistical occurrence patterns. Using such matches produces large forecasting uncertainties. We created a statistical tool to identify and test the compatibility of potential analogue volcanoes based on repose-time characteristics from world-wide datasets. Selecting analogue volcanoes with compatible behavior for factors being forecast, such as repose time, significantly reduces forecasting uncertainties. Applying this tool to Tongariro volcano (NZ), there is a 5% probability for a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥ 3 explosive eruption in the next 50 years. Using pre-historic geological records of a smaller available set of analogs, we forecast a 1% probability of a VEI ≥ 4 eruption in the next 50 years.
dc.description.confidentialfalse
dc.identifier.citationWang T, Bebbington M, Cronin S, Carman J. (2022). Forecasting Eruptions at Poorly Known Volcanoes Using Analogs and Multivariate Renewal Processes. Geophysical Research Letters. 49. 12.
dc.identifier.doi10.1029/2021GL096715
dc.identifier.eissn1944-8007
dc.identifier.elements-typejournal-article
dc.identifier.issn0094-8276
dc.identifier.numbere2021GL096715
dc.identifier.urihttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/69164
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherJohn Wiley and Sons, Inc on behalf of the American Geophysical Union
dc.publisher.urihttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021GL096715
dc.relation.isPartOfGeophysical Research Letters
dc.rights(c) 2022 The Author/s
dc.rightsCC BY-NC-ND 4.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.titleForecasting Eruptions at Poorly Known Volcanoes Using Analogs and Multivariate Renewal Processes
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.elements-id454652
pubs.organisational-groupOther
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