Quantifying location error to define uncertainty in volcanic mass flow hazard simulations

Simple item page
dc.citation.issue8
dc.citation.volume21
dc.contributor.authorMead SR
dc.contributor.authorProcter J
dc.contributor.authorKereszturi G
dc.date.accessioned2024-03-19T01:40:59Z
dc.date.accessioned2024-07-25T06:50:33Z
dc.date.available2024-03-19T01:40:59Z
dc.date.available2024-07-25T06:50:33Z
dc.date.issued2021-08-20
dc.description.abstractThe use of mass flow simulations in volcanic hazard zonation and mapping is often limited by model complexity (i.e. uncertainty in correct values of model parameters), a lack of model uncertainty quantification, and limited approaches to incorporate this uncertainty into hazard maps. When quantified, mass flow simulation errors are typically evaluated on a pixel-pair basis, using the difference between simulated and observed ("actual") map-cell values to evaluate the performance of a model. However, these comparisons conflate location and quantification errors, neglecting possible spatial autocorrelation of evaluated errors. As a result, model performance assessments typically yield moderate accuracy values. In this paper, similarly moderate accuracy values were found in a performance assessment of three depth-averaged numerical models using the 2012 debris avalanche from the Upper Te Maari crater, Tongariro Volcano, as a benchmark. To provide a fairer assessment of performance and evaluate spatial covariance of errors, we use a fuzzy set approach to indicate the proximity of similarly valued map cells. This "fuzzification"of simulated results yields improvements in targeted performance metrics relative to a length scale parameter at the expense of decreases in opposing metrics (e.g. fewer false negatives result in more false positives) and a reduction in resolution. The use of this approach to generate hazard zones incorporating the identified uncertainty and associated trade-offs is demonstrated and indicates a potential use for informed stakeholders by reducing the complexity of uncertainty estimation and supporting decision-making from simulated data.
dc.description.confidentialfalse
dc.format.pagination2447-2460
dc.identifier.author-urlhttp://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000687653000001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=c5bb3b2499afac691c2e3c1a83ef6fef
dc.identifier.citationMead SR, Procter J, Kereszturi G. (2021). Quantifying location error to define uncertainty in volcanic mass flow hazard simulations. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 21. 8. (pp. 2447-2460).
dc.identifier.doi10.5194/nhess-21-2447-2021
dc.identifier.eissn1684-9981
dc.identifier.elements-typejournal-article
dc.identifier.issn1561-8633
dc.identifier.urihttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/70990
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherCopernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union
dc.publisher.urihttps://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/21/2447/2021/
dc.relation.isPartOfNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
dc.rights(c) 2021 The Author/s
dc.rightsCC BY 4.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.titleQuantifying location error to define uncertainty in volcanic mass flow hazard simulations
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.elements-id448280
pubs.organisational-groupOther
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
Published version
Size:
17.82 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Download
Collections
Journal Articles