Spread of Nontyphoidal Salmonella in the Beef Supply Chain in Northern Tanzania: Sensitivity in a Probabilistic Model Integrating Microbiological Data and Data from Stakeholder Interviews

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dc.citation.issue5
dc.citation.volume42
dc.contributor.authorZadoks RN
dc.contributor.authorBarker GC
dc.contributor.authorBenschop J
dc.contributor.authorAllan KJ
dc.contributor.authorChaters G
dc.contributor.authorCleaveland S
dc.contributor.authorCrump JA
dc.contributor.authorDavis MA
dc.contributor.authorMmbaga BT
dc.contributor.authorPrinsen G
dc.contributor.authorThomas KM
dc.contributor.authorWaldman L
dc.contributor.authorFrench NP
dc.coverage.spatialUnited States
dc.date.accessioned2023-10-31T01:27:50Z
dc.date.accessioned2023-11-03T05:06:29Z
dc.date.available2021-09-29
dc.date.available2023-10-31T01:27:50Z
dc.date.available2023-11-03T05:06:29Z
dc.date.issued2022-05
dc.description.abstractEast Africa is a hotspot for foodborne diseases, including infection by nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS), a zoonotic pathogen that may originate from livestock. Urbanization and increased demand for animal protein drive intensification of livestock production and food processing, creating risks and opportunities for food safety. We built a probabilistic mathematical model, informed by prior beliefs and dedicated stakeholder interviews and microbiological research, to describe sources and prevalence of NTS along the beef supply chain in Moshi, Tanzania. The supply chain was conceptualized using a bow tie model, with terminal livestock markets as pinch point, and a forked pathway postmarket to compare traditional and emerging supply chains. NTS was detected in 36 (7.7%) of 467 samples throughout the supply chain. After combining prior belief and observational data, marginal estimates of true NTS prevalence were 4% in feces of cattle entering the beef supply and 20% in raw meat at butcheries. Based on our model and sensitivity analyses, true NTS prevalence was not significantly different between supply chains. Environmental contamination, associated with butchers and vendors, was estimated to be the most likely source of NTS in meat for human consumption. The model provides a framework for assessing the origin and propagation of NTS along meat supply chains. It can be used to inform decision making when economic factors cause changes in beef production and consumption, such as where to target interventions to reduce risks to consumers. Through sensitivity and value of information analyses, the model also helps to prioritize investment in additional research.
dc.format.pagination989-1006
dc.identifier.author-urlhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34590330
dc.identifier.citationZadoks RN, Barker GC, Benschop J, Allan KJ, Chaters G, Cleaveland S, Crump JA, Davis MA, Mmbaga BT, Prinsen G, Thomas KM, Waldman L, French NP. (2022). Spread of Nontyphoidal Salmonella in the Beef Supply Chain in Northern Tanzania: Sensitivity in a Probabilistic Model Integrating Microbiological Data and Data from Stakeholder Interviews.. Risk Anal. 42. 5. (pp. 989-1006).
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/risa.13826
dc.identifier.eissn1539-6924
dc.identifier.elements-typejournal-article
dc.identifier.issn0272-4332
dc.identifier.urihttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/69055
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherWiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis
dc.relation.isPartOfRisk Anal
dc.rightsCC BY 4.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectBayesian hierarchical model
dc.subjectSalmonella
dc.subjectfood safety
dc.subjectsensitivity analysis
dc.subjectvalue of information
dc.subjectAnimals
dc.subjectCattle
dc.subjectLivestock
dc.subjectMeat
dc.subjectModels, Statistical
dc.subjectSalmonella
dc.subjectTanzania
dc.titleSpread of Nontyphoidal Salmonella in the Beef Supply Chain in Northern Tanzania: Sensitivity in a Probabilistic Model Integrating Microbiological Data and Data from Stakeholder Interviews
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.elements-id448717
pubs.organisational-groupOther
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