How immune dynamics shape multi-season epidemics: a continuous-discrete model in one dimensional antigenic space.

Simple item page
dc.citation.issue4
dc.citation.volume88
dc.contributor.authorRoberts MG
dc.contributor.authorHickson RI
dc.contributor.authorMcCaw JM
dc.coverage.spatialGermany
dc.date.accessioned2024-08-08T02:59:47Z
dc.date.available2024-08-08T02:59:47Z
dc.date.issued2024-03-27
dc.description.abstractWe extend a previously published model for the dynamics of a single strain of an influenza-like infection. The model incorporates a waning acquired immunity to infection and punctuated antigenic drift of the virus, employing a set of coupled integral equations within a season and a discrete map between seasons. The long term behaviour of the model is demonstrated by examples where immunity to infection depends on the time since a host was last infected, and where immunity depends on the number of times that a host has been infected. The first scenario leads to complicated dynamics in some regions of parameter space, and to regions of parameter space with more than one attractor. The second scenario leads to a stable fixed point, corresponding to an identical epidemic each season. We also examine the model with both paradigms in combination, almost always but not exclusively observing a stable fixed point or periodic solution. Adding stochastic perturbations to the between season map fails to destroy the model's qualitative dynamics. Our results suggest that if the level of host immunity depends on the elapsed time since the last infection then the epidemiological dynamics may be unpredictable.
dc.description.confidentialfalse
dc.format.pagination48-
dc.identifier.author-urlhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38538962
dc.identifier.citationRoberts MG, Hickson RI, McCaw JM. (2024). How immune dynamics shape multi-season epidemics: a continuous-discrete model in one dimensional antigenic space.. J Math Biol. 88. 4. (pp. 48-).
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s00285-024-02076-x
dc.identifier.eissn1432-1416
dc.identifier.elements-typejournal-article
dc.identifier.issn0303-6812
dc.identifier.number48
dc.identifier.pii10.1007/s00285-024-02076-x
dc.identifier.urihttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/71237
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherSpringer
dc.relation.isPartOfJ Math Biol
dc.rights(c) 2024 The Author/s
dc.rightsCC BY 4.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectDiscrete dynamics
dc.subjectDynamical systems
dc.subjectEpidemiological modelling
dc.subjectSARS-CoV-2
dc.subjectSeasonal influenza
dc.subjectHumans
dc.subjectSeasons
dc.subjectEpidemics
dc.subjectInfluenza, Human
dc.subjectInfluenza A virus
dc.titleHow immune dynamics shape multi-season epidemics: a continuous-discrete model in one dimensional antigenic space.
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.elements-id488006
pubs.organisational-groupCollege of Health
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
Published version.pdf
Size:
1.22 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
488006 PDF.pdf
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
license.txt
Size:
9.22 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Description:
Download
Collections
Journal Articles