Time lag effect on malaria transmission dynamics in an Amazonian Colombian municipality and importance for early warning systems.

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dc.citation.issue1
dc.citation.volume13
dc.contributor.authorGonzalez-Daza W
dc.contributor.authorVivero-Gómez RJ
dc.contributor.authorAltamiranda-Saavedra M
dc.contributor.authorMuylaert RL
dc.contributor.authorLandeiro VL
dc.coverage.spatialEngland
dc.date.accessioned2024-08-13T03:25:10Z
dc.date.available2024-08-13T03:25:10Z
dc.date.issued2023-10-30
dc.description.abstractMalaria remains a significant public health problem worldwide, particularly in low-income regions with limited access to healthcare. Despite the use of antimalarial drugs, transmission remains an issue in Colombia, especially among indigenous populations in remote areas. In this study, we used an SIR Ross MacDonald model that considered land use change, temperature, and precipitation to analyze eco epidemiological parameters and the impact of time lags on malaria transmission in La Pedrera-Amazonas municipality. We found changes in land use between 2007 and 2020, with increases in forested areas, urban infrastructure and water edges resulting in a constant increase in mosquito carrying capacity. Temperature and precipitation variables exhibited a fluctuating pattern that corresponded to rainy and dry seasons, respectively and a marked influence of the El Niño climatic phenomenon. Our findings suggest that elevated precipitation and temperature increase malaria infection risk in the following 2 months. The risk is influenced by the secondary vegetation and urban infrastructure near primary forest formation or water body edges. These results may help public health officials and policymakers develop effective malaria control strategies by monitoring precipitation, temperature, and land use variables to flag high-risk areas and critical periods, considering the time lag effect.
dc.description.confidentialfalse
dc.edition.edition2023
dc.format.pagination18636-
dc.identifier.author-urlhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37903862
dc.identifier.citationGonzalez-Daza W, Vivero-Gómez RJ, Altamiranda-Saavedra M, Muylaert RL, Landeiro VL. (2023). Time lag effect on malaria transmission dynamics in an Amazonian Colombian municipality and importance for early warning systems.. Sci Rep. 13. 1. (pp. 18636-).
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41598-023-44821-0
dc.identifier.eissn2045-2322
dc.identifier.elements-typejournal-article
dc.identifier.issn2045-2322
dc.identifier.number18636
dc.identifier.pii10.1038/s41598-023-44821-0
dc.identifier.urihttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/71267
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherSpringer Nature Limited
dc.publisher.urihttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-44821-0
dc.relation.isPartOfSci Rep
dc.rights(c) 2023 The Author/s
dc.rightsCC BY 4.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectAnimals
dc.subjectHumans
dc.subjectColombia
dc.subjectMalaria
dc.subjectSeasons
dc.subjectTemperature
dc.subjectWater
dc.titleTime lag effect on malaria transmission dynamics in an Amazonian Colombian municipality and importance for early warning systems.
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.elements-id484259
pubs.organisational-groupOther
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