Browsing by Author "Stangl J"

Now showing 1 - 5 of 5
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    The myth of business cycle sector rotation
    (John Wiley and Sons Ltd., 2023-09-06) Molchanov A; Stangl J
    Conventional wisdom suggests that sectors/industries provide systematic performance and that business cycle rotation strategies generate excess market performance. However, we find no evidence of systematic sector performance where popular belief anticipates it will occur. At best, conventional sector rotation generates modest outperformance, which quickly diminishes after allowing for transaction costs and incorrectly timing the business cycle. The results are robust to alternative sector and business cycle definitions. We find that relaxing sector rotation assumptions and letting any industry excess return predict future returns of other industries results in predictability not significantly different than what would be expected by random chance.
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    YOUNG NEW ZEALANDERS AND FINANCIAL RESILIENCE IN THE TIME OF COVID-19: A LONGITUDINAL STUDY UPDATE
    (Fin-Ed Centre, 2021-02-01) Matthews C; Reyers M; Wood P; Stangl J
    This report covers an interim update to the 20-year longitudinal study into how young New Zealanders learn about personal finance. The main longitudinal study, conducted at five-early intervals, launched in 2012 and comprised a cohort of New Zealanders aged 18 to 22 years, at that time. The second stage of the study took place in 2017 and the third stage will take place in 2022. Overall, the Longitudinal Study endeavours to understand issues related to the financial knowledge and financial education experience, both formal and informal, of the participants. Planned interim updates, such as this, enable on-going contact with the participants as well as providing a periodic snapshot of their financial knowledge progression and financial wellbeing. The study previously undertook interim updates in 2014, 2016 and 2019.
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    Young New Zealanders and retirement savings engagement: a longitudinal study update
    (2020-02-01) Matthews C; Reyers M; Stangl J; Wood P
    This report covers an interim update to the 20-year longitudinal study into how young New Zealanders learn about personal finance. The main longitudinal study, conducted at five-early intervals, launched in 2012 and comprised a cohort of New Zealanders aged 18 to 22 years, at that time. The second stage of the study took place in 2017 and the third stage will take place in 2022. Overall, the Longitudinal Study endeavours to understand issues related to the financial knowledge and financial education experience, both formal and informal, of the participants. Planned interim updates, such as this, enable on-going contact with the participants as well as providing a periodic snapshot of their financial knowledge progression and financial wellbeing. The study previously undertook interim updates in 2014 and 2016.
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    Young New Zealanders Ongoing Personal Finance Journey: A Longitudinal Study – Stage 2
    (Fin-Ed Centre, 2019-01-01) Matthews C; Reyers M; Wood P; Stangl J
    The report presents findings from the second stage of the Fin-Ed Centre’s 20-year longitudinal study, which tracks the financial knowledge, attitudes and behaviours of a group of New Zealanders through different life stages. The longitudinal study is unique in New Zealand. The first stage occurred in 2012 when the cohort was aged from 18 to 22 years. Now, five years on, the participants are aged from 23 to 27 years. The study will repeat again in 2022, 2027, and conclude in 2032. At study termination, the participants will range in age from 38 to 42 years. Of the original 350 cohort, 232 participated in the second phase of the study – a 66 percent retention rate. The study undertook interim updates in 2014 and 2016, which dealt with the topical issues of economic inclusion and housing affordability. The current focus is to determine how attitudes and behaviours have changed over the past five years as participants move into new life stages. The study finds young New Zealanders still rely on their parents for financial advice, despite many harbouring doubts about parental advice. Nearly half the participants said they had learned “everything” or “almost everything” from their parents. While this was down from two-thirds in 2012, the reliance on parental advice was surprising, given only 35 percent felt that their parents knew what was best for them in terms of their finances. When asked about how they expected to learn about money management in the future, parental advice still featured highly, but the dominant source, at 39 percent, was “life experiences.”
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    Young New Zealanders’ Ongoing Personal Finance Journey: A Longitudinal Study– Stage 3
    (Fin-Ed Centre, 2023-08-01) Matthews C; Wood P; Stangl J
    The report presents findings from the third stage of the Fin-Ed Centre’s 20-year longitudinal study, which tracks the financial knowledge, attitudes and behaviours of a group of New Zealanders through different life stages. The longitudinal study is unique in New Zealand, using participants identified randomly from the New Zealand electoral roll from six geographic locations. The sample is not demographically representative of the New Zealand population in terms of gender and ethnicity, with a likely self-selection bias, but the demographics between samples are generally stable. The first stage occurred in 2012 when the cohort was aged from 18 to 22 years, with stage 2 following in 2017. Now, five years further on, in the third stage the participants are aged from 28 to 32 years. The study will repeat again in 2027, before concluding in 2032. At study termination, the participants will range in age from 38 to 42 years. Of the original 350 cohort, 232 participated in the third phase of the study – a 66 percent retention rate. The study undertook interim updates in 2014, 2016, 2019 and 2020, which dealt with topical issues including economic inclusion, housing affordability and the COVID-19 pandemic. The focus of this report is to consider how participants’ attitudes and behaviours have changed over the past five years as they move into new life stages. While the study finds young New Zealanders still have some reliance on their parents for financial information, the parental influence has dropped, with parents now the source of “everything” or “almost everything” learned about finance for just 26 percent of participants. Life experiences had replaced parents as the most popular source of information, and was expected to dominate in the future. The gender gap in financial literacy is narrowing, with a 17 percent increase in the average score for females compared to just 6 percent for males. Overall, there was an improvement in financial literacy. In addition, there was an improvement in participants’ self-assessed literacy, returning to the self-confidence of 2012; however, the gender gap also remained with only 29 percent of females assessing their financial literacy as “Very Good” or “Excellent” compared to 44 percent of males. Part of the improvement in financial literacy may reflect the higher proportion who reported having taken steps to proactively enhance their money management skills, including a much higher proportion of participants reporting talking to financial professionals such as bank staff and financial planners/counsellors.