Browsing by Author "Potter SH"

Now showing 1 - 11 of 11
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    Enhancing the value of weather and climate services in society - identified gaps and needs as outcomes of the 1st WMO WWRP/SERA “Weather and Society” Conference
    (American Meteorological Society, 2023-02-14) Göber M; Isadora C; Hoffmann D; Mooney CJ; Rodriguez L; Becker N; Ebert EE; Fearnley C; Fundel VJ; Golding B; Jeurig J; Kelman I; Kox T; Magro F-A; Perrels A; Postigo JC; Potter SH; Robbins J; Rust H; Schoster D; Tan M; Taylor A; Williams H
    What: The Societal and Economics Research Application (SERA) Working Group of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) organized the first Weather and Society Conference, inviting the weather community to actively engage on critical themes to understand, analyze, and enhance the value of weather and climate services in society. The online conference ran over 2 weeks. Each session focused on a theme, ran for two hours, and included talks and discussion followed by a one-hour poster session. When: 28 February to 11 March 2022 Where: Online.
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    How Visual Design of Severe Weather Outlooks Can Affect Communication and Decision-Making
    (American Meteorological Society, 2023-10-16) Clive MAT; Doyle EEH; Potter SH; Noble C; Johnston DM
    Multiday severe weather outlooks can inform planning beyond the hour-to-day windows of warnings and watches. Outlooks can be complex to visualize, as they represent large-scale weather phenomena overlapping across several days at varying levels of uncertainty. Here, we present the results of a survey (n 5 417) that explores how visual varia-bles affect comprehension, inferences, and intended decision-making in a hypothetical scenario with the New Zealand MetService Severe Weather Outlook. We propose that visualization of the time window, forecast area, icons, and uncertainty can influence perceptions and decision-making based on four key findings. First, composite-style outlooks that depict multiple days of weather on one map can lead to biased perceptions of the forecast. When responding to questions about a day for which participants accurately reported there was no severe weather forecast, those who viewed a composite outlook reported higher likelihoods of severe weather occurring, higher levels of concern about travel, and higher likelihoods of changing plans compared to those who viewed outlooks that showed weather for each day on a separate map, suggesting that they perceived the forecast to underrepresent the likelihood of severe weather on that day. Second, presenting uncertainty in an extrinsic way (e.g., “low”) can lead to more accurate estimates of likelihood than intrinsic formats (e.g., hue variation). Third, shaded forecast areas may lead to higher levels of confidence in the forecast than outlined forecast areas. Fourth, inclusion of weather icons can improve comprehension in some conditions. The results demonstrate how visualization can affect decision-making about severe weather and support several evidence-based considerations for effective design of long-term forecasts.
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    Long-term communication of aftershock forecasts: The Canterbury earthquake sequence in New Zealand
    (Elsevier Ltd., 2024-10-21) Wein AM; McBride SK; Becker JS; Christophersen A; Doyle EEH; Gerstenberger MC; Potter SH
    On 14 February 2016, a magnitude (M)5.7 earthquake struck in Christchurch New Zealand (Aotearoa in the Maori language). The shaking caused damage to historic facades, power outages, cliff collapses, rock falls, and liquefaction but no reported injuries or fatalities. This Valentine's Day earthquake was an aftershock in the Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES), which began on 4 September 2010 with the M7.1 Darfield Earthquake and included the destructive and fatal M6.2 Christchurch aftershock on 22 February 2011. This study, eight months after the Valentine's Day earthquake and six years after the initiation of the CES, is the first to explore long-term aftershock forecast information and communication needs. The exploratory study also aimed to gather feedback on aftershock scenarios, an alternative form for communicating the forecast. The qualitative study involved workshops with emergency managers, public health officials, and members of the public in Christchurch. Key findings for long-term communication throughout an earthquake sequence include: 1. divergent earthquake experiences affect aftershock communication response and information needs; 2. understanding aftershock sequence behavior is foundational to sense-making when large aftershocks occur; 3. strategic earthquake sequence updates from the trusted science agency and local agencies could serve as important reminders for earthquake preparedness; 4. communication of aftershock forecast uncertainty could aid with both the credibility of the information and living with uncertainty, and 5. inclusion of impact information and preparedness advice into aftershock forecast scenarios could provide links to actionable information. The paper derives implications for research and practice of long-term communications during an aftershock sequence.
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    Nurturing partnerships to support data access for impact forecasts and warnings: Theoretical integration and synthesis
    (Elsevier B.V., 2024-04-15) Harrison SE; Potter SH; Prasanna R; Doyle EEH; Johnston D
    This paper presents a synthesis and theoretical integration of findings from a research project that explored the data needs and sources for implementing impact forecasts and warnings for hydrometeorological hazards. Impact forecasts and warnings (IFW) have received global attention in recent years as they offer a novel way of improving the communication of hazards and risks. The fundamental idea behind IFWs is to enable warning services to meaningfully communicate the anticipated outcomes, consequences, or impacts of the hazard interacting with society or the environment by incorporating knowledge about the underlying and dynamic exposure and vulnerability of people and assets. One key question for IFW implementation is about data needs and sources to inform IFWs.Using the Grounded Theory Methodology, we address the question “How can partnerships and collaboration better facilitate the collection, creation, and access to hazard, impact, vulnerability, and exposure data for IFWs?” Our findings point to partnerships and collaboration as a necessary strategy for implementing IFWs. Implementation requires accessing various types and sources of hazard, impact, vulnerability, and exposure data to assess and communicate the potential impacts of hydrometeorological hazards. Partnerships and collaboration facilitate the sharing of and access to required data and knowledge. Based on our findings, we provide recommendations to increase interagency communication and partnerships for IFWs and disaster risk reduction, such as making cohabitation arrangements between agencies, running joint training scenarios, and encouraging meteorological services and emergency responders to co-define tailored warning thresholds.
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    Organisational response to the 2007 Ruapehu Crater Lake breakout lahar in New Zealand: Use of communication in creating an effective response
    (Springer International Publishing, 2016-01-05) Becker J; Leonard GJ; Potter SH; Coomer MA; Paton D; Wright K; Johnston DM; Fearnley, C; Bird, D; Jolly, GE; Haynes, K
    When Mt. Ruapehu erupted in 1995-1996 in New Zealand, a tephra barrier was created alongside Crater Lake on the top of Mt. Ruapehu. This barrier acted as a dam, with Crater Lake rising behind it over time. In 2007 the lake breached the dam and a lahar occurred down the Whangaehu Valley and across the volcano’s broad alluvial ring-plain. Given the lahar history from Ruapehu, the risk from the 2007 event was identified beforehand and steps taken to reduce the risks to life and infrastructure. An early warning system was set up to notify when the dam had broken and the lahar had occurred. Physical works to mitigate the risk were put in place. A planning group was also formed and emergency management plans were put in place to respond to the risk. To assess the effectiveness of planning for and responding to the lahar, semi-structured interviews were undertaken with personnel from key organisations both before and after the lahar event. This chapter discusses the findings from the interviews in the context of communications, and highlights how good communications contributed to an effective emergency management response. As the potential for a lahar was identifiable, approximately 10 years of lead-up time was available to install warning system hardware, implement physical mitigation measures, create emergency management plans, and practice exercises for the lahar. The planning and exercising developed effective internal communications, engendered relationships, and moved individuals towards a shared mental model of how a respond to the event. Consequently, the response played out largely as planned with only minor communication issues occurring on the day of the lahar. The minor communication issues were due to strong personal connections leading to at least one case of the plan being bypassed. Communication levels during the lahar event itself were also different from that experienced in exercises, and in some instances communications were seen to increase almost three-fold. This increase in level of communication, led to some difficulty in getting through to the main Incident Control Point. A final thought regarding public communications prior to the event was that more effort could have been given to developing and integrating public information about the lahar, to allow for ease of understanding about the event and integration of information across agencies.
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    ‘Sharing is caring’: A socio-technical analysis of the sharing and governing of hydrometeorological hazard, impact, vulnerability, and exposure data in Aotearoa New Zealand
    (Elsevier Ltd, 2022-01) Harrison SE; Potter SH; Prasanna R; Doyle EEH; Johnston D
    There has been a growing recognition of the need to collect disaster and risk data over the last two decades. Accordingly, better collection and management of disaster data was identified as a priority of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. The introduction and implementation of Impact Forecasts and Warnings (IFWs) have further highlighted this need to collect and access hazard, impact, vulnerability, and exposure (HIVE) data. However, challenges have been met with reporting and using disaster data, which have resulted in an identified need to establish principles for data collection, recording, reporting, exchange/sharing, and comparability. This introduces the concept of data governance and management for disaster data, particularly with regards to data custodianship, stewardship, and sharing. Using Grounded Theory, a series of interviews were conducted with users and creators of HIVE data to develop further understanding around managing and accessing it for severe weather hazards in New Zealand. A socio-technical lens guided the analysis to identify the organisational and technical intervening conditions and action/interaction strategies for accessing and sharing HIVE data in NZ. Findings indicated that there is a need to establish data governance principles for HIVE data in New Zealand. An additional need was identified for nurturing partnerships to continue building trust between stakeholders for sharing data. Furthermore, integration challenges continue to interfere with the use of various sources of HIVE data for effective risk and impact assessments for IFWs and beyond. Systematic and standardised data collection approaches using GIS-based tools can support integration.
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    The communication of volcano information in New Zealand–a narrative review
    (Taylor and Francis Group on behalf of the Royal Society of New Zealand, 2025-02-13) Das M; Becker JS; Doyle EEH; Charlton D; Clive MA; Krippner J; Vinnell LJ; Miller C; Stewart C; Gabrielsen H; Potter SH; Leonard GS; Johnston DM; Tapuke K; Fournier N; McBride SK
    Communication of volcano information is critical for effective volcanic risk management. A variety of information is communicated to inform decisions and guide actions for planning, preparedness, and response. Such information needs to be reliable, and fit-for-purpose across different stages of volcanic activity (quiescence, unrest, short or long-term eruptive stages, and the post-eruptive stage). However, an understanding of communication across these different stages of volcanic activity remains limited. We undertook a narrative review of New Zealand literature to explore what information is communicated about volcanoes, across which stages of activity and by whom. Results highlight that NZ literature only documents certain aspects of volcano information and communication, specifically regarding certain locations, stages of volcanic activity (i.e. quiescence or unrest), or hazards. Literature gaps exist regarding volcano communication during unrest and post-eruptive stages, as well as how volcano information evolves between these phases, and how decision-makers use such information. Additional work would be useful to document existing examples of volcano information for different stages of activity. Further research could help in understanding the information needs of decision-makers during each of these stages to improve information and communication.
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    The Effects of Earthquake Experience on Intentions to Respond to Earthquake Early Warnings
    (Frontiers Media S.A, 2022-07-18) Becker JS; Vinnell LJ; McBride SK; Nakayachi K; Doyle EEH; Potter SH; Bostrom A
    Warning systems are essential for providing people with information so they can take protective action in response to perils. Systems need to be human-centered, which requires an understanding of the context within which humans operate. Therefore, our research sought to understand the human context for Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) in Aotearoa New Zealand, a location where no comprehensive EEW system existed in 2019 when we did this study. We undertook a survey of people's previous experiences of earthquakes, their perceptions of the usefulness of a hypothetical EEW system, and their intended responses to a potential warning (for example, Drop, Cover, Hold (DCH), staying still, performing safety actions). Results showed little difference in perceived usefulness of an EEW system between those with and without earthquake experience, except for a weak relationship between perceived usefulness and if a respondent's family or friends had previously experienced injury, damage or loss from an earthquake. Previous earthquake experience was, however, associated with various intended responses to a warning. The more direct, or personally relevant a person's experiences were, the more likely they were to intend to take a useful action on receipt of an EEW. Again, the type of experience which showed the largest difference was having had a family member or friend experience injury, damage or loss. Experience of participation in training, exercises or drills did not seem to prompt the correct intended actions for earthquake warnings; however, given the hypothetical nature of the study, it is possible people did not associate their participation in drills, for example, with a potential action that could be taken on receipt of an EEW. Our analysis of regional differences highlighted that intentions to mentally prepare on receipt of a warning were significantly higher for Canterbury region participants, most likely related to strong shaking and subsequent impacts experienced during the 2010–11 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence. Our research reinforces that previous experience can influence earthquake-related perceptions and behaviors, but in different ways depending on the context. Public communication and interventions for EEW could take into consideration different levels and types of experiences of the audience for greater success in response.
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    Understanding mariners’ tsunami information needs and decision-making contexts: A post-event case study of the 2022 Tonga eruption and tsunami
    (Elsevier Inc, 2025-02-21) Harrison SE; Lawson RV; Kaiser L; Potter SH; Johnston D
    The 15 January 2022, Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha'apai volcanic eruption generated a tsunami that spread across the Pacific Ocean and prompted a tsunami advisory in Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ). Concurrently, a severe weather warning was issued for ex-Tropical Cyclone Cody, passing east of NZ and producing heightened swells along the North Island coast. Numerous boats were significantly damaged or sunk in Tūtūkākā Marina, Northland, NZ. Mariners raised concerns over the perceived lack of tsunami warnings. We interviewed mariners in Tūtūkākā to understand their experiences on the night of 15 January 2022 and their needs and expectations of tsunami warnings. The complexity of the multi-hazard event made it difficult to assess and convey the severity of the expected tsunami. We found that mariners require information about expected wave height and arrival time, weather, and sea conditions to inform their anticipatory mitigation actions. This event shows the importance of multi-hazard risk assessments to produce effective warnings and action advice.
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    When the earth doesn't stop shaking: How experiences over time influenced information needs, communication, and interpretation of aftershock information during the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence, New Zealand
    (Elsevier, 1/03/2019) Becker JS; Potter SH; McBride SK; Wein A; Doyle EEH; Paton D
    © 2018 The Authors The Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES) began with the Darfield earthquake on 4 September 2010. Continual large and small aftershocks since that time have meant communities have cycled through repeated periods of impact, response and recovery. Scientific communication about aftershocks during such a prolonged sequence has faced distinct challenges. We conducted research to better understand aftershock information needs for agencies and the public, and how people interpreted and responded to such information. We found that a wide range of information was needed from basic facts about aftershocks through to more technical information, and in different formats (e.g. maps, tables, graphs, text, analogies). Information needs also evolved throughout the sequence, and differed depending on people's roles and experiences, and the phase of impact, response and recovery communities were in. Interpretation of aftershock information was influenced by a variety of factors including how understandable and relevant the information was, whether people had prior knowledge or experience of aftershocks, whether the information was personalised or contextualised, emotions and feelings, credibility and trust, and external influences. Given that such a diversity of evolving information is required, it is imperative that geoscientists strategize how to provide such information before a significant earthquake occurs.
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    ‘Where oh where is the data?‘: Identifying data sources for hydrometeorological impact forecasts and warnings in Aotearoa New Zealand
    (Elsevier B.V, 2021-12) Harrison SE; Potter SH; Prasanna R; Doyle EEH; Johnston D
    Early Warning Systems are a key component to building preparedness and response capacities to hydrometeorological hazards that continue to affect people worldwide. Notable historic events have revealed gaps in current hazard-based warning systems. Impact Forecasts and Warnings (IFWs) have been proposed to fill these communication gaps by re-centring the warning thresholds and language around the consequences, or impacts, of the hazard(s), rather than just the physical characteristics. However, research has shown that implementing IFWs requires not just hazard data, but also data on impacts, vulnerability, and exposure to understand the risk of impacts. Using Grounded Theory Methodology, we conducted a series of interviews with users and creators of hazard, impact, vulnerability, and exposure (HIVE) data to identify data sources and understand how these data are collected and created to support the implementation of IFWs. We focus the study on the New Zealand context to support the country's efforts towards implementing IFWs. Our findings indicate that many sources for HIVE data exist that are collected for other uses (such as for disaster/emergency response efforts, and for research) and have relevant applications for IFWs. Our findings further suggest that priorities, motivation, and interest within organisations influence how well data is collected. Moreover, agencies tend to prefer official data, but official data has limitations that unofficial data may address, such as timeliness. To that end, a tension exists between the timeliness and trustworthiness of data needed for emergency response and warnings.