Browsing by Author "Kuligowski ED"

Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
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    Analyzing Risk Perception, Evacuation Decision and Delay Time: A Case Study of the 2021 Marshall Fire in Colorado
    (Elsevier B.V., 2023-12-11) Forrister A; Kuligowski ED; Sun Y; Yan X; Lovreglio R; Cova TJ; Zhao X
    Climate change is increasing the threat of wildfires to populated areas, especially those within the wildland-urban interface (WUI). The 2021 Marshall fire forced the evacuation of over 30,000 people in Boulder, Jefferson and Adams Counties in Colorado, US. To improve our understanding of wildfire evacuation response, we surveyed individuals affected by the Marshall fire to analyze their evacuation decisions and resulting behavior. We used linear and logistic regression models to determine the factors influencing individuals’ risk perceptions, their decisions to evacuate or stay, and the associated evacuation delay times. We found higher levels of risk perception at the time of the evacuation decision were associated with higher levels of pre-fire perceived risk, having mid-level household income, the receipt of fire cues and having a medical condition. Increased pre-event risk perception increased the likelihood of evacuating, along with gender (female-identified), being aged between 55 and 64 years, and having a higher household income. On the other hand, having a prior awareness of wildfires had a negative effect on evacuation likelihood. Additionally, having previous experience with fire damage, owning their home, having a larger household size and being alerted later in the fire event reduced the delay time; whereas engaging in preparation activities and having children in the home led to longer delay times. These research findings can be used by emergency managers to better prepare WUI communities for future wildfire events.
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    Enhancing egress drills: Preparation and assessment of evacuee performance
    (1/10/2019) Gwynne SMV; Kuligowski ED; Boyce KE; Nilsson D; Robbins AP; Lovreglio R; Thomas JR; Roy-Poirier A
    This article explores how egress drills—specifically those related to fire incidents—are currently used, their impact on safety levels, and the insights gained from them. It is suggested that neither the merits of egress drills are well understood, nor the impact on egress performance well characterized. In addition, the manner in which they are conducted varies both between and within regulatory jurisdictions. By investigating their strengths and limitations, this article suggests opportunities for their enhancement possibly through the use of other egress models to support and expand upon the benefits provided. It is by no means suggested that drills are not important to evacuation safety—only that their inconsistent use and the interpretation of the results produced may mean we (as researchers, practitioners, regulators, and stakeholders) are not getting the maximum benefit out of this important tool. © 2017 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. Fire and Materials StartCopText© 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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    Social vulnerabilities and wildfire evacuations: A case study of the 2019 Kincade fire
    (Elsevier B.V., 2024-05-31) Sun Y; Forrister A; Kuligowski ED; Lovreglio R; Cova TJ; Zhao X
    Vulnerable populations (e.g., populations with lower income or disabilities) are disproportionately impacted by natural hazards like wildfires. It is crucial to develop equitable and effective evacuation strategies to meet their unique needs. While existing studies offer valuable insights, we need to improve our understanding of how vulnerabilities affect wildfire evacuation decision-making, as well as how this varies spatially. The goal of this study is to conduct an in-depth analysis of the impacts of social vulnerabilities on aggregated evacuation decisions, including evacuation rates, delay in departure time, and evacuation destination distance by leveraging large-scale GPS data generated by mobile devices. Specifically, we inferred evacuation decisions at the level of the census block group, a geographic unit defined by the U.S. Census, utilizing GPS data. We then employed ordinary least squares and geographically weighted regression models to investigate the impacts of social vulnerabilities on evacuation decisions. We also used Moran's I to test if these impacts were consistent across different block groups. The 2019 Kincade Fire in Sonoma County, California, was used as the case study. The impacts of social vulnerabilities on evacuation rates show significant spatial variations across block groups, whereas their effects on the other two decision types do not. Additionally, unemployment, a factor under-explored in previous studies, was identified as contributing to both an increased delay in departure time and a reduction in destination distance of evacuees at the aggregate level. Furthermore, upon comparing the significant factors across different models, we observed that some of the vulnerabilities contributing to evacuation rates for all residents differed from those affecting the delay in departure time and destination distance, which only applied to evacuees. These new insights can guide emergency managers and transportation planners to enhance equitable wildfire evacuation planning and operations.