Browsing by Author "Kennedy B"

Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
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    Determining physical and mechanical volcanic rock properties via reflectance spectroscopy
    (Elsevier B V, 2021-12) Schaefer LN; Kereszturi G; Villeneuve M; Kennedy B
    There are currently no reliable methods to determine rock physical and mechanical properties that are not labor or resource intensive, especially at the scale of volcanoes. Using mineralogical-physical-mechanical relationships, we suggest it is possible to derive rock properties from rapid, non-invasive reflectance spectroscopy measurements. To demonstrate this potential, we correlate the physical and mechanical properties of variously altered andesitic volcanic rocks to laboratory reflectance spectroscopy using statistical analysis. Several rock properties, including density, connected porosity, strength, magnetic susceptibility, and elasticity, correlate with reflectance spectroscopy in both the visible and short-wave infrared parts of the electromagnetic spectrum. We attribute these correlations to the presence and degradation (i.e. weathering or hydrothermal alteration) of iron-bearing minerals such as pyroxene, magnetite, and pyrite, which reflect changes to both rock properties and reflectance spectroscopy measurements. Results support the use of transfer functions to estimate rock properties directly from reflectance spectroscopy. Ultimately, aerial or satellite imaging spectroscopy could be used to create geotechnical maps at volcano scale
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    Development of a Bayesian event tree for short-term eruption onset forecasting at Taupō volcano
    (Elsevier BV, 2022-12) Scott E; Bebbington M; Wilson T; Kennedy B; Leonard G
    Taupō volcano, located within the Taupō Volcanic Zone (TVZ) in the central North Island of Aotearoa-New Zealand, is one of the world's most active silicic caldera systems. Silicic calderas such as Taupō are capable of a broad and complex range of volcanological activity, ranging from minor unrest episodes to large destructive supereruptions. A critical tool for volcanic risk management is eruption forecasting. The Bayesian Event Tree for Eruption Forecasting (BET_EF) is one probabilistic eruption forecasting tool that can be used to produce short-term eruption forecasts for any volcano worldwide. A BET_EF model is developed for Taupō volcano, informed by geologic and historic data. Monitoring parameters for the model were obtained through a structured expert elicitation workshop with 30 of Aotearoa-New Zealand's volcanologists and volcano monitoring scientists. The eruption probabilities output by the BET_EF model for Taupō volcano's 17 recorded unrest episodes (between 1877 and 2019) were examined. We found time-inhomogeneity in the probabilities stemming from both the changes over time in the monitoring network around Taupō volcano and increasing level of past data (number of non-eruptive unrest episodes). We examine the former issue through the lens of the latest episodes, and the latter by re-running the episodes assuming knowledge of all 16 other episodes (calibration to 2021 data). The time variable monitoring network around Taupō volcano and parameter weights had a substantial impact on the estimated probabilities of magmatic unrest and eruption. We also note the need for improved monitoring and data processing at Taupō volcano, the existence of which would prompt updates and therefore refinements in the BET_EF model.
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    Reflection in I-O psychology: Herding sheep
    (Cambridge University Press, 2023-03-09) Kennedy B; Stiles-Smith B; Koreshi SY
    Modelling a process of reflection and reflexivity, Hyland (2023) has demonstrated a means by which I-O psychology can better produce innovative solutions for complex, multicausal, adaptive problems. Reflection and reflexivity call for identification of biases, assumptions, evaluation of Outcome, and adjustment of action. We agree that philosophy of science provides a systematic framework and that the challenge to consider what future we envision is timely. Nearly 50 years ago, Kerr’s (1975) now classic article pointed out the folly of rewarding A while hoping for B. If, as a discipline and profession, we are to realize the potential of I-O psychology to address complex human issues then perhaps this is the time to do something other than more of A. We agree that reflection and reflexivity are fit for that purpose and need to be embedded in curricula. As educators and practitioners, our experience is that it not only can be incorporated into academic and professional preparation, but that doing so pays dividends.