Massey Research Online - Browsing by Author "Johnston DM"

Browsing by Author "Johnston DM"

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Children and Disasters: A tribute to Professor Kevin Ronan
(Massey University, 2022-11-01) Johnston DM; Vinnell LJ; Becker JS; Kaiser L
In 1997, Professor Kevin Ronan published a paper in the first ever edition of the Australasian Journal of Disaster and Trauma Studies, titled “The Effects of a “Benign” Disaster: Symptoms of Post-traumatic Stress in Children Following a Series of Volcanic Eruptions”. Over the next 23 years, Kevin and his many colleagues pursued aspects of children and disasters to both improve practice and advance scholarship in this area. In March 2020 we were saddened by the untimely passing of Kevin. As a tribute to Professor Ronan this special issue of the Australasian Journal of Disaster and Trauma Studies brings together accounts of current research and practice initiatives inspired by, building upon, and directly influenced by Professor Ronan’s work.
Citizen science initiatives in high-impact weather and disaster risk reduction
(Massey University, 20/12/2021) Vinnell LJ; Becker JS; Scolobig A; Johnston DM; Tan ML; McLaren L
High-impact weather events cause considerable social and economic harm, with these effects likely to increase as climate change drives extremes and population growth leads to commensurate growth in exposure. As part of the World Meteorological Organization’s World Weather Research Programme, the 10-year High-Impact Weather (HIWeather) Project facilitates global cooperation and collaboration to improve weather prediction, forecasting, and warning. As part of this, the HIWeather Citizen Science Project identifies and promotes activities which involve citizens in the warning value chain, from “sensors” where they passively provide data, through to “collaborators” where they are involved in designing, running, interpreting, and applying the research. As well as benefitting global efforts to reduce societal impacts of weather and other natural hazards, citizen science also encourages hazard awareness and scientific literacy and interest. This editorial introduces the HIWeather Citizen Science Project special issue, summarizing the three papers in this issue in the broader context of high-impact weather and citizen science.
Community preparedness for volcanic hazards at Mount Rainier, USA
(BioMed Central Ltd, 2021-12-09) Vinnell L; Hudson-Doyle EE; Johnston DM; Becker JS; Kaiser L; Lindell MK; Bostrom A; Gregg C; Dixon M; Terbush B
Lahars pose a significant risk to communities, particularly those living near snow-capped volcanoes. Flows of mud and debris, typically but not necessarily triggered by volcanic activity, can have huge impacts, such as those seen at Nevado Del Ruiz, Colombia, in 1985 which led to the loss of over 23,000 lives and destroyed an entire town. We surveyed communities around Mount Rainier, Washington, United States, where over 150,000 people are at risk from lahar impacts. We explored how factors including demographics, social effects such as perceptions of community preparedness, evacuation drills, and cognitive factors such as risk perception and self-efficacy relate to preparedness when living within or nearby a volcanic hazard zone. Key findings include: women have stronger intentions to prepare but see themselves as less prepared than men; those who neither live nor work in a lahar hazard zone were more likely to have an emergency kit and to see themselves as more prepared; those who will need help to evacuate see the risk as lower but feel less prepared; those who think their community and officials are more prepared feel more prepared themselves; and benefits of evacuation drills and testing evacuation routes including stronger intentions to evacuate using an encouraged method and higher self-efficacy. We make a number of recommendations based on these findings including the critical practice of regular evacuation drills and the importance of ongoing messaging that focuses on appropriate ways to evacuate as well as the careful recommendation for residents to identify alternative unofficial evacuation routes.
Coping with Disaster: General Practitioners' Perspectives on the Impact of the Canterbury Earthquakes
(2014) Johal SS; Mounsey Z; Tuohy R; Johnston DM
Aim - To explore the challenges for general practitioners (GPs) following the 2010/2011 Canterbury earthquakes and describe how these were met. Methods - Qualitative study using semi-structured interviews with eight GPs from the Christchurch area exploring their experiences. Results - The interviews revealed that the GPs faced a range of challenges both in the immediate aftermath of the earthquakes and in the following months. These included dealing with an increased and changed workload, and managing personal concerns. The GPs reflected on their coping behaviour and how their professional practice had changed as a result. Conclusions - All GPs reported significant increases in workload raising questions about the need for coordination of locum support. GPs often found themselves working outside their area of accustomed expertise especially in relation to patients needing financial aid. GPs identified a number of coping behaviours though some only in hindsight. Greater awareness of self-care strategies would benefit GPs responding to disasters.
Enhancing scientific response in a crisis: evidence-based approaches from emergency management in New Zealand
(16/01/2015) Hudson-Doyle EE; Paton D; Johnston DM; Marti, J
Contemporary approaches to multi-organisational response planning for the management of complex volcanic crises assume that identifying the types of expertise needed provides the foundation for effective response. We discuss why this is only one aspect, and present the social, psychological and organizational issues that need to be accommodated to realize the full benefits of multi-agency collaboration. We discuss the need to consider how organizational culture, inter-agency trust, mental models, information management and communication and decision making competencies and processes, need to be understood and accommodated in crisis management planning and delivery. This paper discusses how these issues can be reconciled within superordinate (overarching) management structures designed to accommodate multi-agency response that incorporates decision-making inputs from both the response management team and the science advisors. We review the science advisory processes within New Zealand (NZ), and discuss lessons learnt from research into the inter-organisational response to historical eruptions and exercises in NZ. We argue that team development training is essential and review the different types of training and exercising techniques (including cross training, positional rotation, scenario planning, collaborative exercises, and simulations) which can be used to develop a coordinated capability in multiagency teams. We argue that to truly enhance the science response, science agencies must learn from the emergency management sector and embark on exercise and simulation programs within their own organisations, rather than solely participating as external players in emergency management exercises. We thus propose a science-led tiered exercise program, with example exercise scenarios, which can be used to enhance both the internal science response and the interagency response to a national or international event, and provide direction for the effective writing and conduct of these exercises.
Evaluating land use and emergency management plans for natural hazards as a function of good governance: A Case Study from New Zealand
(Beijing Normal University Press, 2015-03) Saunders W; Grace E; Beban J; Johnston DM
Plan evaluation is of utmost importance as a function of good governance. It provides a means to improve the institutional basis for implementing land use controls, provides an important opportunity to improve future plans to reduce risk, and improves the vision for sustainable development and management. This article provides an overview of the methods and findings of a plan evaluation project undertaken in New Zealand. The project analyzed 99 operative plans, provided in-depth analysis of ten plans, and included a capability and capacity study of councils. This is the first time all operative plans in New Zealand have had their natural hazard provisions assessed in this manner. The information provides an important baseline for future policy improvements, and a basis for future research and policy directions. The project found that, while New Zealand land use plans appear to be improving over time, there are still opportunities for improvement. These include improving linkages between objectives, policies, and rules within land use plans; and strengthening the linkages between land use and emergency management plans. The largest challenge is the accessibility, understanding of, and updating of hazard information.
Factors influencing individual ability to follow physical distancing recommendations in Aotearoa New Zealand during the COVID-19 pandemic: a population survey
(Taylor and Francis Group, 2021-02-14) Gray L; Rose SB; Stanley J; Zhang J; Tassell-Matamua N; Puloka V; Kvalsvig A; Wiles S; Murton SA; Johnston DM; Becker JS; MacDonald C; Baker MG
Physical distancing (also commonly known as social distancing) is an important non-pharmaceutical strategy to minimise the risk of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 virus. A range of restrictions to promote physical distancing form a key part of the Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) all-of-government response to the global COVID-19 pandemic. The effectiveness of physical distancing strategies is highly dependent on buy-in and the actions of individuals, households and communities. This NZ population survey was conducted to identify people’s views on the effectiveness of various strategies, and factors impacting on their capacity to follow physical distancing requirements during Alert Levels 4, 3, and 2 (April 24th–June 8th 2020). The majority of the 2407 participants were supportive of the public health measures implemented to promote physical distancing across Alert Levels. Few substantial differences were observed in relation to demographic characteristics, suggesting high overall levels of understanding and willingness to adhere to distancing requirements. Around half of the participants reported difficulties practicing physical distancing when in public. Reasons included being an essential worker and challenges related to the behaviour of others. These survey findings highlight the willingness of NZ’s population to play their part in eliminating COVID-19 transmission, and the way in which behavioural change was rapidly adopted in line with government requirements.
How Visual Design of Severe Weather Outlooks Can Affect Communication and Decision-Making
(American Meteorological Society, 2023-10-16) Clive MAT; Doyle EEH; Potter SH; Noble C; Johnston DM
Multiday severe weather outlooks can inform planning beyond the hour-to-day windows of warnings and watches. Outlooks can be complex to visualize, as they represent large-scale weather phenomena overlapping across several days at varying levels of uncertainty. Here, we present the results of a survey (n 5 417) that explores how visual varia-bles affect comprehension, inferences, and intended decision-making in a hypothetical scenario with the New Zealand MetService Severe Weather Outlook. We propose that visualization of the time window, forecast area, icons, and uncertainty can influence perceptions and decision-making based on four key findings. First, composite-style outlooks that depict multiple days of weather on one map can lead to biased perceptions of the forecast. When responding to questions about a day for which participants accurately reported there was no severe weather forecast, those who viewed a composite outlook reported higher likelihoods of severe weather occurring, higher levels of concern about travel, and higher likelihoods of changing plans compared to those who viewed outlooks that showed weather for each day on a separate map, suggesting that they perceived the forecast to underrepresent the likelihood of severe weather on that day. Second, presenting uncertainty in an extrinsic way (e.g., “low”) can lead to more accurate estimates of likelihood than intrinsic formats (e.g., hue variation). Third, shaded forecast areas may lead to higher levels of confidence in the forecast than outlined forecast areas. Fourth, inclusion of weather icons can improve comprehension in some conditions. The results demonstrate how visualization can affect decision-making about severe weather and support several evidence-based considerations for effective design of long-term forecasts.
New Zealanders' judgments of earthquake risk before and after the Canterbury earthquake: Do they relate to preparedness?
(The New Zealand Psychological Society, 2011) McClure J; Wills C; Johnston DM; Recker C; Fitzgerald, J; O'Connor, F; Evans, IM
Previous research has examined judgments about earthquake likelihood after citizens have experienced an earthquake, but has not compared judgments in the affected region with other regions. Following the Darfield (Canterbury) earthquake, this research compared earthquake risk judgments in the affected region and those outside the region. Participants in Christchurch, Wellington and Palmerston North judged the likelihood of an earthquake before and after the 2010 Canterbury (Darfield) earthquake, near Christchurch. Wellington was chosen as there had been higher expectations of an earthquake in that area. Palmerston North was chosen to be comparable to Christchurch before the Darfield earthquake, in that many New Zealanders have expected an earthquake in Wellington, not Palmerston North. Participants judged earthquake likelihoods for their own city, for the rest of New Zealand and for Canterbury. Christchurch participants also indicated their preparedness before and after the earthquake. Expectations of an earthquake in Canterbury were low before the Darfield earthquake in all three regions and rose significantly after that earthquake. In contrast, Wellingtonians’ judgments of the likelihood of an earthquake in Wellington were high before the Darfield earthquake and did not rise after that earthquake. Christchurch participants’ risk perceptions showed only a weak relation to their preparedness. These results clarify how disasters such as major earthquakes affect judgments of earthquake risk for citizens inside and outside the affected area. The results show that these effects differ in cities where an earthquake is expected. Broader issues about preparing for earthquakes are also discussed.
Organisational response to the 2007 Ruapehu Crater Lake breakout lahar in New Zealand: Use of communication in creating an effective response
(Springer International Publishing, 2016-01-05) Becker J; Leonard GJ; Potter SH; Coomer MA; Paton D; Wright K; Johnston DM; Fearnley, C; Bird, D; Jolly, GE; Haynes, K
When Mt. Ruapehu erupted in 1995-1996 in New Zealand, a tephra barrier was created alongside Crater Lake on the top of Mt. Ruapehu. This barrier acted as a dam, with Crater Lake rising behind it over time. In 2007 the lake breached the dam and a lahar occurred down the Whangaehu Valley and across the volcano’s broad alluvial ring-plain. Given the lahar history from Ruapehu, the risk from the 2007 event was identified beforehand and steps taken to reduce the risks to life and infrastructure. An early warning system was set up to notify when the dam had broken and the lahar had occurred. Physical works to mitigate the risk were put in place. A planning group was also formed and emergency management plans were put in place to respond to the risk. To assess the effectiveness of planning for and responding to the lahar, semi-structured interviews were undertaken with personnel from key organisations both before and after the lahar event. This chapter discusses the findings from the interviews in the context of communications, and highlights how good communications contributed to an effective emergency management response. As the potential for a lahar was identifiable, approximately 10 years of lead-up time was available to install warning system hardware, implement physical mitigation measures, create emergency management plans, and practice exercises for the lahar. The planning and exercising developed effective internal communications, engendered relationships, and moved individuals towards a shared mental model of how a respond to the event. Consequently, the response played out largely as planned with only minor communication issues occurring on the day of the lahar. The minor communication issues were due to strong personal connections leading to at least one case of the plan being bypassed. Communication levels during the lahar event itself were also different from that experienced in exercises, and in some instances communications were seen to increase almost three-fold. This increase in level of communication, led to some difficulty in getting through to the main Incident Control Point. A final thought regarding public communications prior to the event was that more effort could have been given to developing and integrating public information about the lahar, to allow for ease of understanding about the event and integration of information across agencies.
Patient Reactions after the Canterbury Earthquakes 2010-11: A Primary Care Perspective
(2014) Johal SS; Mounsey Z; Tuohy R; Johnston DM
Aim - To explore GP perceptions of the impact of the 2010/2011 Canterbury earthquakes on primary care clinic patients. Methods - Qualitative study using semi-structured interviews with eight GPs from the Christchurch area exploring GPs' perceptions of the impact on patients. Results - Patients experienced significant strain and anxiety following the earthquakes. The impact of this differed due to personal circumstances. Secondary stressors such as insurance and housing issues contributed to experiences of distress. Conclusions - The GPs identified significant impacts on patients as a result of the earthquakes with significant levels of strain and anxiety being due to the on-going recovery process. It appears that a significant proportion of the affected population felt comfortable talking with the GPs about the earthquakes, secondary stressors and their effects upon them.
Strategies for Implementing a One Welfare Framework into Emergency Management
(MDPI (Basel, Switzerland), 2021-11-03) Squance H; MacDonald C; Stewart C; Prasanna R; Johnston DM; Peli A
Responding to emergencies requires many different individuals and organisations to work well together under extraordinary circumstances. Unfortunately, the management of animal welfare in emergencies remains largely disconnected from emergency management overall. This is due predominately to professional silos and a failure to understand the importance of human-animal-environment (h-a-e) interdependencies. One Welfare (OW) is a concept with these interrelationships at its core. This paper argues that by adopting an OW framework it will be possible to achieve a transdisciplinary approach to emergency management in which all stakeholders acknowledge the importance of the h-a-e interdependencies and work to implement a framework to support this. Acknowledging that such a transformational change will not be easy, this paper proposes several strategies to overcome the challenges and optimise the outcomes for animal welfare emergency management (AWEM). These include legislation and policy changes including h-a-e interface interactions as business as usual, improving knowledge through interprofessional education and training, incorporating One Welfare champions, and recognising the role of animals as vital conduits into communities.
The communication of uncertain scientific advice during natural hazard events
(The New Zealand Psychological Society, 2011) Hudson-Doyle EE; Johnston DM; McClure J; Paton D
During natural hazard crises such as earthquakes, tsunami, and volcanic eruptions, a number of critical challenges arise in emergency management decision-making. A multidisciplinary approach bridging psychology and natural hazard sciences has the potential to enhance the quality of these decisions. Psychological research into the public understanding of different phrasings of probability has identified that the framing, directionality and probabilistic format can influence people’s understanding, affecting their action choices. We present results identifying that translations of verbal to numerical probability phrases differ between scientists and non-scientists, and that translation tables such as those used for the International Panel on Climate Change reports should be developed for natural hazards. In addition we present a preliminary result illustrating that individuals may ‘shift’ the likelihood of an event towards the end of a time window.
The context in which we examine disasters in New Zealand: An editorial
(The New Zealand Psychological Society, 2011) O'Connor F; Johnston DM; Evans IM
This is a tale of two earthquakes (you could say many more on account of persistent aftershocks) that were, in a Dickensian way, the best of times and the worst of times. It is a tale of two cities as well. There are a lot of contrasts between the east and the west of the city, and between the two events, as well as lots of comparisons.
Thunderstorm asthma: a review, risks for Aotearoa New Zealand, and health emergency management considerations
(New Zealand Medical Association, 2022-07-01) Stewart C; Young NL; Kim ND; Johnston DM; Turner R
AIM: To provide an up-to-date review of thunderstorm asthma (TA), identifying causative factors, and to discuss implications for management of TA in New Zealand. METHODS: A literature search was carried out to identify articles that investigate the characteristics and causative factors of TA. Nine electronic databases were searched, yielding 372 articles, reduced to 30 articles after screening for duplication and relevance. RESULTS: TA is globally rare, with 29 reported events since 1983, but is expected to increase in frequency as Earth warms. Triggers include both pollen (particularly ryegrass pollen) and fungal spores. Individual risk factors include outdoor exposure, sensitivity to triggering allergens and history of seasonal allergic rhinitis. History of asthma is not a strong risk factor but is associated with severity of outcome. Limited data on demographic characteristics suggests that individuals aged between 20 and 60 and (in Australasia) of Asian/Indian ethnicity are at higher risk. A single TA event has been reported in New Zealand to date, but much of New Zealand may be at risk of future events given that ryegrass pastures are widely distributed, and summer thunderstorms can occur anywhere. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend developing rapidly deployable public messaging to support the health emergency management response to future TA events, together with the instigation of routine aeroallergen monitoring.
To cordon or not to cordon: The inherent complexities of post-earthquake cordoning learned from christchurch and wellington experiences
(New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering (NZSEE), 2021-03-01) Shrestha SR; Orchiston CHR; Elwood KJ; Johnston DM; Becker JS
The use of post-earthquake cordons as a tool to support emergency managers after an event has been documented around the world. However, there is limited research that attempts to understand the inherent complexities of cordoning once applied, particularly the longer-term impacts and consequences. This research aims to fill the gap by providing a detailed understanding of cordons, their management, and the implications of cordoning in a post-earthquake environment. We use a qualitative method to understand cordons through case studies of two cities where cordons were used at different temporal and spatial scales: Christchurch (M6.3, February 2011) and Wellington (M7.8 in Kaikōura, November 2016), New Zealand. Data was collected through 21 key informant interviews obtained through purposive and snowball sampling of participants who were directly or indirectly involved in a decision-making role and/or had influence in relation to the cordoning process. The participants were from varying backgrounds and roles i.e. emergency managers, council members, business representatives, insurance representatives, police, and communication managers. We find that cordons are used primarily as a tool to control access for the purpose of life safety and security, but cordons can also be adapted to support recovery. Broadly, our analysis suggests two key aspects, ‘decision-making’ and ‘operations and management’, which overlap and interact as part of a complex system. The underlying complexity arises in large part due to the multitude of sectors affected by cordons: economics, law, politics, governance, evacuation, civil liberties, available resources etc. The complexity further increases as the duration of cordoning is extended.
Tsunami awareness and preparedness in Aotearoa New Zealand: The evolution of community understanding
(Elsevier Ltd, 2021-11-01) Dhellemmes A; Leonard GS; Johnston DM; Vinnell LJ; Becker JS; Fraser SA; Paton D
After catastrophic events such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami there is a clear need for vulnerable countries like Aotearoa New Zealand to get prepared for tsunami. In the last ten years, the New Zealand government initiated major efforts to raise awareness of tsunami risk among coastal residents. This study explores tsunami awareness, preparedness, and evacuation intentions among residents of the East Coast of the North Island in a 2015 survey. The ten chosen locations also participated in a tsunami survey in 2003, with results demonstrating that tsunami awareness rose in the twelve years between the surveys. The 2015 survey also included questions on preparedness and intended action. Even though coastal residents know they live in a tsunami prone area, preparedness is relatively low and high expectations of a formal warning remain, even for a local source tsunami scenario. Furthermore, survey respondents had unrealistic ideas of evacuation procedures. When asked about their evacuation intentions, respondents intended to undertake a number of different actions before evacuating their homes, which could cause significant delays in the evacuation process. Most respondents were also reluctant to evacuate on foot and prefer using their vehicles instead, which could create dangerous traffic congestion. These surveyed intentions are consistent with a study of actual evacuation behaviours in the subsequent 2016 Kaikōura earthquake and tsunami, providing validation for the survey indicators. This paper identifies the procedures least understood by the public and offers some solutions to improve tsunami preparedness.

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