Browsing by Author "Evans B"

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    Environmental factors in tsunami evacuation simulation: topography, traffic jam, human behaviour
    (Springer Nature, 2024-06-07) Fathianpour A; Evans B; Babaeian Jelodar M; Wilkinson S
    The risk a tsunami, a high-rise wave, poses to coastal cities has been highlighted in recent years. Emergency management agencies have become more prepared, and new policies and strategies are in place to strengthen the city's resiliency to such events. Evacuation is a highly effective response to tsunamis, and recent models and simulations have provided valuable insights into mass evacuation scenarios. However, the accuracy of these simulations can be improved by accounting for additional environmental factors that affect the impact of a tsunami event. To this end, this study has been conducted to enhance an evacuation simulation model by considering topography that impacts traffic mobility and speed, traffic congestion, and human behaviour. The updated model was employed to evaluate the effectiveness of Napier City's current evacuation plan, as it can realistically simulate both pedestrian and vehicular traffic movements simultaneously. The simulation demonstrated in this paper was based on a scenario involving an 8.4 Mw earthquake from the Hikurangi subduction interface, which would trigger a tsunami risk in the area. Based on this event, the final evacuation time (time between after the shake is felt and the arrival of the tsunami wave at the shoreline of Napier City) is considered to be 50 min. The results of the MSEM model are presented within two categories, (1) survival rate and (2) safe zone capacity. The evacuation simulation model used to examine the environmental factors in this study is the Micro-Simulation Evacuation Model (MSEM), an agent-based model capable of considering both pedestrian and vehicular interactions. The results showed that the steep pathway to the safe zone would markedly decrease the moving speed and reduce the survival rate, highlighting the need to have supporting vertical evacuation to reduce the number of evacuees heading to steep routes. Additionally, the modelling and assessment of mass evacuation by vehicles has highlighted regions of severe congestion due to insufficient network capacity. Through highlighting such regions, the model aid policy makers with a more targeted approach to infrastructure investment to improve flows of traffic in mass evacuation scenarios and increase survival rates.
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    Reducing the vulnerability of tourists to tsunami: challenges for decision-makers
    (Springer Nature, 2023-06-17) Fathianpour A; Wilkinson S; Jelodar MB; Evans B
    A near source or local tsunami, because of its close proximity to an affected area, cannot usually be predicted soon enough to mitigate many of the risks posed. The limited notice time in local tsunamis poses greater challenges for decision-makers than distant source tsunamis. Tsunamis affect coastal regions, where many of these areas are visited by tourists who often lack adequate knowledge of the hazards of the region. This study focuses on the risks tourists face during a local tsunami and discusses how to best protect tourists. Initially, a thematic literature analysis was performed to identify research gaps. Then, a case study methodology was adopted to obtain an in-depth understanding of how emergency management officials consider the management of tourists in evacuation planning. Napier, New Zealand, was used as a case study because it is a tourist town and vulnerable to tsunamis. Key decision-makers in the disaster management and tourist management sector were interviewed. The results outline three major initiatives that could lead to better tourist management and create better tsunami awareness for tourists. First, the risks posed to tourists can be reduced if emergency management officials collaborate with tourism agencies. Second, developing accurate evacuation simulations can show what would happen to tourists in a tsunami so that emergency management officials can be better prepared, and councils can improve evacuation planning and infrastructure to evacuate tourists and local communities safely. Third, educating tourists about evacuation plans will increase their readiness and enhance their safety.
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    Tsunami evacuation modelling via micro-simulation model
    (Elsevier B.V., 2023-02-15) Fathianpour A; Evans B; Jelodar MB; Wilkinson S
    The associated tsunami risks posed to coastal regions in earthquake-prone areas highlight the importance of an effective emergency evacuation plan for these regions. Evacuation simulations have shown to be a valuable tool in assessing the effectiveness of existing evacuation plans and providing solutions for risk reduction, and improving community readiness. This paper describes the development of a micro-simulation evacuation model (MSEM) to assess the effectiveness of local tsunami evacuation processes and test the results with a velocity-based theoretical model. As an agent-based model, the MSEM considers both pedestrian and vehicle interactions and their interactions with each other. The models were used to assess the evacuation scenarios for a tsunami-prone city Napier, in New Zealand. The evacuation process was evaluated based on a local 8.4 Mw earthquake that would trigger a tsunami event, with an evacuation time of 50 min between feeling the initial shake in Napier City and the time of arrival of the tsunami wave. The study outlined within this paper assumes two scenarios: (1) effected population would evacuate by foot, and (2) affected population would evacuate by car, considered to take place during the afternoon at the traffic peak time. The results of the MSEM show factors such as evacuation method, lane and sidewalk capacities, and interactions between individuals affect the individuals' ability to safely evacuate. The MSEM model based on scenario 1 and 2 for Napier City, demonstrated around 85% of residents would reach designated safe area when all evacuating by foot, whilst, only 45% of evacuees will reach their designated safe zone if all individuals attempted to use vehicles as their means of evacuation.